We knew the new baseball playoff system, with the addition of a 3rd wildcard crew, would create quirks. In a vacuum, it really works as a result of all division winners are thought-about equal. But in actuality, the place individuals play the video games, they very a lot aren’t. Teams are onerous to choose on simply their document, as a result of every division winner performs such completely different schedules (one thing that will probably be partially rectified subsequent season with a extra balanced schedule). But the thought is that in the event you’re the final wildcard crew, your “punishment” is that you just’re supposed to play the third finest crew in the league, on the street.
It’s not likely figuring out that method this season.
Rob Mains of Baseball Prospectus and Joe Sheehan in his publication have been throughout this for a bit now, however in each leagues it seems like it might be higher to end in the final wildcard spot than in the second wildcard spot. And that’s as a result of MLB isn’t reseeding after the wildcard spherical — one thing they might need to take a look at after this season.
In the American League, the Blue Jays, the Mariners, and the Rays are all inside half a sport of one another, and a full 5.5 in entrance of the Orioles. Thanks to the Yankees truly being ambulatory and awake for a pair video games this weekend in opposition to Tampa, these three are nearly definitely going to be your wildcard groups, barring some type of historic collapse that may put Theo Epstein again right into a gorilla costume.
The quirk of the AL is that the sixth-seed might need the simpler path to make some severe noise. That seed will play the winner of the AL Central, seemingly to be both the White Sox or Guardians, each of that are headed for 85- or 86-win seasons, possibly. Meanwhile, the two wildcard groups left over are going to play one another, each of that are on tempo for 90+ win seasons.
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Now you will get into the weeds right here, and actually debate whether or not being on the street for a max of three video games and having to see Dylan Cease for certainly one of them and a scary constant Johnny Cueto or a reviving Lance Lynn is any type of favorable matchup. Ditto having to see Shane Bieber and Cleveland’s bullpen that’s been the darkness to hitters of late. But neither can be going through Tampa’s employees, or Toronto’s lineup if it received sizzling, and Seattle has Luis Castillo and Logan Gilbert and Robbie Ray mendacity in wait as nicely. Any crew could be something over simply three video games, however we now have 162 video games of proof that each Cleveland and Chicago have some fairly large flaws.
If the final seed in the playoffs is in a position to overcome the AL Central winner, hardly a miraculous end result, they might then see the Yankees as a substitute of the Astros. Now, the Yankees aren’t actually the crash take a look at dummy they’ve been impersonating for a pair months now. Or not less than they shouldn’t be. But it’s a lineup that has holes, and a pitching employees that’s both harm, unhealthy, throwing extra innings than it ever has, or is Gerrit Cole, no matter which means to you. And they nonetheless may win 100 video games in a division that’s going to produce two extra playoff groups and a 3rd that will probably be the first to miss out (Baltimore). But they aren’t the Astros. Finishing sixth might see a crew get the simpler matchup in the Divisional spherical in addition to the first spherical, ought to they get there.
In the NL, it’s type of the identical story. The third wildcard crew will get to face the St. Louis Cardinals, winners of the three-legged and quarter-brained race that’s the NL Central. Yeah, yeah “Cardinals Devil Magic,” which can solely be turned up to MacBeth ranges with Pujols and Molina of their final seasons. But the Cards are most undoubtedly not the Mets or Braves, which is what the fifth seed — the higher crew than the sixth seed — will get as their “reward.” And ought to the sixth seed topple St. Louis in St. Louis (be nonetheless my coronary heart), they don’t then draw the Dodgers. Sure, the Mets or Braves, whichever one wins the NL East, are not any picnic, however the Dodgers are the finest crew in the league.
Again, you may get into the weeds right here, squint and see that with the wonky well being of the Dodgers employees and Craig Kimbrel at all times ready to go Three Mile Island in the pen, possibly it’s no extra worrisome to face them than having to cope with deGrom and Scherzer thrice in a five-game collection. But we play the 162 to decide who’s higher, and strictly by information posted over six months, the sixth seed finally ends up being the simpler path.
And most seasons will appear to be this. There’s at all times a division that lags behind the different two, which can at all times be on faucet for the third wildcard crew. There’s at all times a division that has two of the finest groups in the league, and the one which falls brief successful the division will probably be a a lot more durable opponent than whoever wins the remedial division. The Dodgers final 12 months, the Nationals of 2019, the Cubs and Yankees of 2018, have been all groups that didn’t win a division that have been higher over the season than wildcard groups by some margin. It’s simply the way it works whenever you’re break up into six divisions.
The solely actual reply is to dispose of divisions, steadiness the schedule utterly, and take the prime six groups, which can by no means occur. Reseeding after the wildcard spherical is a half-solution. Seeding the lowest division winner and the three wildcards after the common season is one other resolution, however any crew that wins a division goes to be awfully salty about having to journey to play a crew that didn’t. And once more, as a result of the schedule makeups are so completely different between groups in different divisions it’s not completely truthful both.
We can come again and snigger at this when it finally ends up being a Cardinals-White Sox World Series and I’ve to transfer to the moon.
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