The San Francisco 49ers have a protracted highway forward of them if they need to win their first Super Bowl since 1995. Not essentially as a result of they’re going to face lots of sturdy competitors — the NFC is quite weak this yr — however as a result of they’ve to win 4 straight video games with 2022’s Mr. Irrelevant beneath heart. Leading up to the playoffs, that hasn’t hindered the 49ers although. They’ve gained 10 straight video games, 5 of which have include Purdy because the staff’s signal-caller. He has but to report a single sport with fewer than two passing touchdowns, and has a passer ranking of 119 since taking on for the injured Jimmy Garoppolo. It’s been a terrific story, and bettors appear inclined to suppose it’s one thing extra.
What are the chances?
According to OddsChecker US, since Week 18 of the common season got here to an in depth, the 49ers have seen a staggering 17.7 % of bets positioned on them to win the Super Bowl. What’s even crazier is that, most often, these kind of numbers point out nice odds for an underappreciated squad, however the 49ers don’t have that downside. They have the third-best odds to win all of it (+500), behind solely the Kansas City Chiefs (+350) and Buffalo Bills (+400). In reality, the staff with the second-most bets to hoist the Lombardi Trophy, the Cincinnati Bengals, has worse odds to win all of it (+850). Normally, I’d suppose bettors would flock to the staff that wouldn’t solely pay out extra for profitable all of it, however was additionally one win away from doing so simply final yr.
Could a weak NFC be main bettors to the 49ers?
Is the NFC actually that dangerous that bettors are keen to earn much less cash for the boldness that comes with supporting the most popular staff within the NFC? It appears so, they usually do have motive to be assured in SF’s probabilities. For the yr, the 49ers have allowed opponents to rating solely 16.3 factors per sport, whereas scoring 33.5 factors per sport with Purdy at quarterback. Over a full 17-game season, this equates to 277 factors allowed and 570 factors for. There is just one staff within the Super Bowl Era to permit fewer complete factors whereas scoring extra: The 2007 New England Patriots, who went 16-0 in the course of the common season.
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Great numbers don’t at all times get you a Super Bowl victory
However, as I’m positive all of you realize, that staff didn’t win the Super Bowl. That stated, of the seven groups to have scored 500 or extra factors in a season whereas permitting fewer than 300, 5 went on to signify their convention within the Super Bowl (the 1998 Vikings and 2019 Ravens didn’t). Only two truly gained all of it — the 1999 Rams and 1994 49ers. By that logic, the chances of the 49ers reaching the Super Bowl must be fairly excessive, so why is there nonetheless a way of unease in regard to them profitable all of it?
Bet on Brock?
Purdy is the plain reply. Despite enjoying phenomenally effectively, he’s nonetheless a seventh-round rookie. Another issue would be the 49ers’ lack of adverse opponents since Purdy got here into the fold. Although Purdy did face two playoff groups, he solely confronted one with a profitable report — the Seattle Seahawks. I’ll admit, at the same time as a 49ers fan, this scares me a bit as effectively. With such an inexperienced man beneath heart, it’s onerous to come back if the 49ers fall behind early. Since Purdy took over the beginning gig, the 49ers have had just one sport the place the staff was compelled to throw the ball extra typically than they ran it — Week 17 in opposition to the Las Vegas Raiders. That was a sport the 49ers ought to’ve dominated. I imply, for goodness sake, the Raiders didn’t even play Derek Carr in that sport, but when push got here to shove, Purdy had a troublesome time pulling out the win. Who is aware of? If Tashaun Gipson didn’t make that game-sealing interception in extra time, perhaps the 49ers wouldn’t have ended the season on a ten-game win streak.
Can the 49ers play from behind?
Yes, Purdy finally did pull the ten-point comeback, however he ought to’ve by no means been in that place. What occurs when the 49ers fall behind in opposition to an offense like Philadelphia’s or Buffalo’s that doesn’t succumb to stress and might persistently rating even in opposition to the very best defenses within the NFL? That’s the place I’m apprehensive.
Best of the bunch?
Given the issues each different staff within the NFC has, I wouldn’t be shocked if the 49ers represented their convention within the Super Bowl, however ought to they go up in opposition to the Chiefs, Bills, or Bengals, I’d have a tough time believing they’d win. They’ve already misplaced by 21 to the Chiefs this season, and whereas the 49ers did make the swap at quarterback just a few weeks later, and maybe hadn’t come into kind at that time but, 21 factors continues to be rather a lot. Yes, Tom Brady and the Bucs beat the New Orleans Saints within the 2020 playoffs after dropping 38-3 within the common season, however Purdy isn’t Brady, regardless of their low draft statuses.
The expertise is there — however can they put all of it collectively?
The 49ers have the expertise to win all of it. That’s plain. However, the quarterback place is and has lengthy been a very powerful place in soccer, and quarterbacks making their first profession postseason begin have a tendency to battle.
How rookie QBs have fared lately
Since the NFL modified its playoff format in 2002, groups with quarterbacks making their first-ever postseason begins have gone 24-46, together with an abysmal 1-4 efficiency final season (Carr, Hurts, Jones, Murray, Burrow). To be truthful, the one QB that gained, Joe Burrow, reached the Super Bowl, and was one Ja’Marr Chase streak away from profitable that sport. I count on the 49ers to beat the Seahawks, as they’ve finished twice this yr already. So with that stated, perhaps the 49ers have an outstanding probability in any case.
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