Super Bowl LVII is anticipated to be certainly one of the closest championship video games in current reminiscence, contested between two powerhouse, top-seeded groups — the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles — with some eerily similar bona fides. For the first time, each Super Bowl groups enter the recreation having compiled the identical variety of factors over the common season and postseason (546) and the identical win-loss whole over each (16-3).
There’s a large betting marketplace for this recreation, with the American Gaming Association estimating that $16 billion shall be wagered in the United States alone. The sheer quantity means the sportsbooks often find yourself pretty near a real fifty-fifty proposition on the level unfold and whole.
But the Super Bowl prop bets supplied on almost each attainable statistical final result can add some perception into the nitty-gritty of the matchup. The markets attempt to determine the chance of sure participant performances based mostly on a season’s value of information. The odds of Patrick Mahomes’s throwing an interception to the Eagles’ turnover-inducing protection, as an example, or the probabilities that Jalen Hurts will carry in a landing rating supply a reasonably clear window into each groups.
Any perception helps. This column completed the season at a 52 p.c success price towards the unfold, however all of these video games have been a mere prelude to this one.
Last week’s document: 1-1 | Overall document: 142-131-10
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles, 6:30 p.m. Eastern, Fox
Line: Eagles -1.5 | Total: 50.5
The line for the recreation opened at Kansas City -2.5 and swung to Philadelphia -2.5 inside fifteen minutes. Since then, it has stabilized, considerably, in the vary of the Eagles laying 1 to 1.5 factors.
Dive Deeper Into Super Bowl LVII
The minor statistical benefit anticipated for Kansas City was considerably dulled by accidents to the staff’s starters, prime amongst them the ankle sprain Mahomes has contended with since Jan. 21. Coach Andy Reid mentioned that Mahomes wasn’t but 100%, however the quarterback has rehabbed sufficient over the previous two weeks that he practiced this week with no restrictions.
Though the staff positioned receiver Mecole Hardman on injured reserve, each JuJu Smith-Schuster (knee) and Kadarius Toney (ankle/hamstring) have been anticipated to play Sunday, and beginning cornerback L’Jarius Sneed was cleared from concussion protocol.
Kansas City is anticipated to keep up an edge on offense over Philadelphia: Even with a hobbled Mahomes going up towards the Eagles’ opportunistic protection, the market has set the whole for this Super Bowl at 50.5 factors, an indication that the adage about defenses successful championships doesn’t carry a lot weight right here.
Odds are on Mahomes passing for extra yards than Hurts — 292.5 to 238.5 — and the expectation is that a variety of Kansas City’s air yards will come on passes caught by Travis Kelce, whose receiving whole would possibly really be set a bit low at 79.5 yards.
By comparability, the Eagles’ distinctive receiving duo of DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown, are every anticipated to catch over 60 yards this week. But Hurts’s efficiency has been a bit harder to forecast, partly due to his versatility.
His line for speeding yards this week is 50.5, near his season common, which is skewed by a number of large video games. Hurts put up as many as 157 yards, in Week 12 towards the Green Bay Packers, however as few as 10, towards the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 8.
The books have set Miles Sanders’s speeding yards at 62.8 and Kenneth Gainwell’s at 24.6. If Hurts provides one other 50 to that, Kansas City’s protection has an actual downside: They went 2-2 in video games by which the unfold was lower than a area objective and in these two losses (to the Bills and the Bengals), Kansas City’s opponents exceeded the 107.3 yards-per-game common the staff allowed this season.
That superior protection the Eagles will area towards Kansas City has numerous gifted personnel that may rotate out and in. They are the most formidable protection in the league, this season having racked up 70 sacks, together with 16 from linebacker Haason Reddick, who additionally tied for the league lead in compelled fumbles. He was the sixth-most favored recreation M.V.P. candidate as of Wednesday. With James Bradberry, Darius Slay and C.J. Gardner-Johnson roaming in the secondary, the Eagles can put a lid on the large passing performs.
The downside is it is probably not sufficient. Mahomes has already had the lowest depth of goal this season of his total profession, with fewer than 10 p.c of his passes over 20 yards. He’s introduced this staff to the Super Bowl with a tighter, nearer offense and the next success price. And Kansas City has the greatest cross blocking offensive line in the league. Joe Thuney and Creed Humphrey are each first in the league in cross block win price at their respective positions.
The largest knock towards the Eagles, nevertheless, can also be the knowledge level most exterior the staff’s management: Theirs was rated the third-easiest schedule in the N.F.L. In what was anticipated to be the Eagles’ most important problem of the season, the San Francisco 49ers performed primarily with out a quarterback in the N.F.C. championship recreation. Though Philadelphia has dominated its opponents, skeptics could not consider the Eagles can win just because no knowledge exists for the staff besting such a troublesome opponent. Yet.
The final result of the championship recreation is a troublesome name, correctly. How does anybody select between the two top-seeded groups with two of the greatest quarterbacks, defenses and head coaches in the N.F.L.?
Nick Sirianni, the analytical head coach of the Eagles, is assured and aggressive in his play-calling, significantly on fourth down. But in the largest recreation of the season, with two weeks to organize a recreation plan, it’s exhausting to choose towards Reid, who has a 28-4 profession document when the staff is coming off a bye (4-0 off a bye in the submit season with Mahomes).
Kansas City has expertise, the greatest quarterback in a era, and some extent and a hook besides. This column made it this far using with the underdogs: Let’s do it one final time. Pick: Kansas City +1.5
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