Now that my undefeated report of choosing No. 13 seeds or decrease within the NCAA Tournament publicly remains to be intact after Furman’s victory over Virginia on Thursday, I’m deciding to not relaxation on my laurels and inform you all about one other prediction I made earlier this week. For followers of Deadspin’s Agree to Disagree video sequence, this can be a choice I’ve already proclaimed on digicam. Auburn will upset the Midwest area’s No. 1 seed in Houston on Saturday. It’s not fairly the lopsided upset as choosing the Paladins or Saint Peter’s over Kentucky final 12 months, however it’s little doubt not what’ll be favored.
The Cougars regarded horrible in opposition to one of many worst groups within the NCAA Tournament. Northern Kentucky received out of a weak low-major within the Horizon League. The Norse genuinely impressed me final night time and held powerful with one of many supposed greatest groups within the nation. Kelvin Sampson’s squad earned that No. 1 seed and was arguably essentially the most constant crew within the nation through the common season. And Houston both was wanting previous a crew it knew it might simply defeat, or the upstart Norse actually uncovered what a Marcus Sasser-less crew appears like.
If you are taking the very best participant away from any nice crew, it received’t be as mighty anymore. Purdue with out Zach Edey is a bubble crew and is perhaps taking part in within the NIT proper now. Alabama with out Brandon Miller, which needs to be a actuality proper now with the off-court drama surrounding the Crimson Tide, would’ve gotten a robust seed in The Big Dance, however possible extra towards the 4-5 line. Sasser is that needle-mover for the Cougars. The drop-off with out the 6-foot-2 senior guard and possible NBA lottery decide due to a groin harm suffered within the American Athletic Conference Tournament final week, is obvious. He was pulled at halftime by Sampson and Houston was inconsistent with out him.
Auburn had a real toss-up matchup with Iowa on paper. The Tigers had been all the time higher than their seeding, whereas Iowa wasn’t. The Hawkeyes have by no means had a long term within the event underneath Fran McCaffery and this 12 months’s Kris Murray-led squad was no totally different. The SEC outmuscled the Big Ten. There’s no approach round that. And Auburn might have thrown just a few extra punches on the finish of the sport if wanted. In the nightcap, it was apparent by the top of the sport how drained Northern Kentucky was. A crew higher conditioned to play with Houston, which will probably be each crew the Cougars see the remainder of the season, will probably be ready to take higher benefit of a inclined, unmotivated squad. And if the dearth of drive isn’t actuality for UH, it didn’t present it in opposition to the Norse. It additionally has an excellent likelihood for redemption in opposition to Auburn. But nothing’s assured. And Bruce Pearl-coached groups often don’t miss when on condition that form of alternative.
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It’s not clear if Sasser will play at 7:10 p.m. on TBS with a visit to the Sweet 16 on the road. It is obvious that if he performs, he received’t be at full well being, which is already a downgrade from what we’ve anticipated from the Cougars for many of this season. Auburn is a crew that’s gone by a bunch of adversity this season and nonetheless discovered its approach safely into March Madness. It’s a distinct sort of lure to outline the adversity for Houston. Saying the Cougars have been by none could be silly. Their paths of resistance have been examined in video games, with extra tangible rewards, like 11 extra wins than the Tigers this season, alongside the way in which. That’ll imply little come Saturday night time in Birmingham, a brief 110-mile journey from Auburn. And it won’t be a house sport for the AU, however it ought to really feel prefer it from the group. Houston’s strolling into enemy territory and I don’t suppose it’ll be robust sufficient to stroll out of the primetime matchup nonetheless with a season to play for.
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