The Chicago Bears are coming off a bye week. That is just about the one benefit they’ve over the Philadelphia Eagles this weekend. Still, regardless of the apparent disparity in expertise between the 2 squads, bettors appear inclined to attain for the celebs, simply as they did with the Texans over the Cowboys final weekend.
According to OddsChecker US, 65 p.c of bets on the Eagles-Bears moneyline have gone in favor of Chicago. The Eagles come into Week 15 as nine-point favorites over the Chicago Bears, the second-largest unfold of any workforce this week behind solely the Houston Texans (+14) towards the Kansas City Chiefs. So, if I actually imagine that bettors are simply searching for an infinite payday, why wouldn’t they be backing the Houston Texans this week? Simple, they simply watched the Texans lose them cash by failing to beat the Dallas Cowboys. Now, they get the Chiefs, arguably a harder opponent, and other people imagine they’ll’t probably win.
With the Bears, it’s totally different although. Chicago’s offense is scorching, and whereas Justin Fields’ impeccable play hasn’t amounted to a lot on the win column, it’s obtained to be solely a matter of time earlier than they break by way of and are available out victorious. So, why not have or not it’s after a bye and towards a workforce a number of followers think about to be overrated?
I’m not saying that the Eagles are overrated. I feel they’re legit Super Bowl contenders, who, sure, have had a simple schedule, however they’ve dominated in these “easy” video games, simply as nice groups do. That mentioned, my perception isn’t shared amongst NFL followers all over the place. There are a number of individuals with cash on the road who noticed Philly lose to the Commanders and barely beat the Green Bay Packers, Indianapolis Colts, and Arizona Cardinals who imagine the Eagles are extra fraudulent than Brett Favre’s subsequent large public funding, and this might be the week that idea is confirmed, proper? Well, I doubt it.
Justin Fields’ best attribute is his mobility. Despite his extremely gifted arm, the Bears’ lack of robust receivers has inhibited Fields’ means to change video games by way of the air. That’s not saying he hasn’t — he’s regarded unimaginable when compelled to drop again and move — but it surely’s simpler for Fields to change the momentum of video games on the bottom. The Eagles have allowed just one dashing landing to quarterbacks all yr, tied for the third-fewest within the NFL. That mentioned, the Eagles do permit a reasonably excessive 6.8 yards per rush from quarterbacks, however that quantity appears to have nearly no impact on a workforce’s file. That 6.8 determine ranks Philadelphia lifeless final within the NFL…they’ve the perfect file within the league. The Detroit Lions have the next-worst mark (additionally 6.8 yards per try), they’re one of many hottest groups within the NFL, competing for a playoff spot, and regardless of permitting 147 yards and two touchdowns to Fields of their first assembly, the Lions nonetheless emerged victorious.
There is one thing going the Bears’ manner although. The Eagles’ protection presently ranks second in whole yards allowed per recreation, and whereas Fields and firm did beat the top-ranked protection — San Francisco — earlier within the season, that was Week 1, earlier than the Niners discovered their footing, and in arguably the worst climate situations both workforce has performed in all yr. It’s exhausting to decide that recreation on any foundation aside from as an outlier. That mentioned, Chicago has solely confronted two different top-10 defenses all season — Week 7 on the New England Patriots, the place the Bears put up their highest level whole of the season, and Week 12 towards the Jets, the place Justin Fields didn’t play, which will also be considered as an outlier. Unlike the Patriots, we will’t anticipate the Eagles to solely put up 14 factors although. In reality, Philly has only one recreation this yr scoring fewer than 20.
The Eagles do additionally play the Cowboys subsequent week, which is undoubtedly their hardest remaining recreation. Perhaps Philadelphia will overlook the Bears, focusing an excessive amount of on Dallas, and lose sight of what’s straight in entrance of them, however the Eagles aren’t dumb. I doubt they’d be so short-sighted. They’re up two video games on the Cowboys, and I’m certain they’d gladly take a loss towards Dallas as long as they beat Chicago. In that case, at the very least the Eagles would nonetheless maintain a recreation over Dallas for the division lead.
There are a number of different video games with entice strains in Week 15 that appear a lot better for betting the underdog too. Why are the Cowboys solely four-point favorites towards the Jaguars? That appears somewhat low. How concerning the Bengals being solely three-point favorites over Tampa Bay regardless of being simply two weeks faraway from taking down the Chiefs? Why are the Browns simply three-point favorites at residence towards a Lamar Jackson-less Ravens workforce? Vegas tends to know way over the common NFL shopper, and realizing unusual spreads like these is step one towards beating them. I’m not saying they’re all going to hit, simply to control all of them this weekend.
Sure, there’s some purpose to place confidence in the Bears towards the Eagles, however 9 factors is so much and there’s a purpose Vegas has set the road at higher than one possession. Yes, typically they’re flawed however in accordance to Pro-Football-Reference’s Win Probability Calculator, nine-point underdogs have only a 26.6 p.c probability of successful firstly of a recreation — roughly a 1-in-4 probability. The odds of a Bears’ win are simply plus 3.28-to-1, which means Vegas nonetheless holds the higher hand. I like Justin Fields too. Don’t let his greatness cloud your judgment although.
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