As the NBA common season winds down, the MVP race between Joel Embiid of the 76ers and Nikola Jokić of the Nuggets tightens.
The previous two seasons, Jokić has gained the MVP, edging Embiid each occasions. Per Oddschecker, the gamers are neck and neck this season. However, four-time NBA champion Draymond Green of the Warriors provides Embiid the edge.
“Joel has definitely created a tad bit of separation,” he stated on his podcast not too long ago.
On Jan. 28, of their solely head-to-head matchup this season, Embiid dominated, tallying 47 factors, 18 rebounds and three steals in Philadelphia’s 126-119 win. Jokić, in the meantime, had 24 factors, eight rebounds and 9 assists.
Here’s how their MVP cases stack up.
Basic stats
Both large males are having nice seasons statistically.
Jokić is averaging 24.9 factors, 11.9 rebounds and 9.9 assists and taking pictures 63.4% from the subject. If he have been to common 10 assists, he’d be the solely heart and third participant in NBA historical past to common a triple-double. (The others have been Oscar Robertson and Russell Westbrook, who has executed it 4 occasions.)
Embiid is averaging a league-leading 33.3 factors, 10.2 rebounds and 4.2 assists whereas taking pictures 54.5 % total, 34.1 % from three and 85.6 % from the line. He can also be the anchor for the 76ers’ seventh-ranked protection, averaging 1.1 steals and 1.7 blocks.
Last season, Embiid grew to become the first heart since Shaq to common 30 factors in a season. He’ll repeat that feat this season.
Their offensive manufacturing is analogous, however they go about it in several methods. Jokić is extra targeted on facilitating the working of Denver’s offense whereas Embiid’s precedence is dominating in the put up. Embiid’s stellar protection provides him an edge over “The Joker.”
Advanced statistics
It shall be robust for Embiid to base his case on these superior numbers that often favor two-time MVP Jokić, a sophisticated stats darling.
Jokić leads the NBA in plus/minus (+789) by a big margin. Second and third are teammates Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (+683) and Aaron Gordan (+657). This could also be an even bigger signal of the Nuggets’ success as a group than Jokić’s particular person dominance.
Embiid is eleventh in the NBA in plus/minus at +531 and the solely 76er in the high 12.
Per FiveThirtyEight, Jokić leads the NBA in complete RAPTOR (+14.6) and RAPTOR WAR (+20.4). (The figures measure how a lot a participant contributes to his group’s offense and protection per 100 possessions, relative to the league common.)
Embiid is second in each classes (+8.6 and +12.3).
Overall, Jokić dominates Embiid when wanting strictly at superior statistics.
Team success
The Nuggets (51-24) and 76ers (49-26) are having wonderful seasons, with Denver first in the Western Conference and Philadelphia third in the East.
The groups are tied for the second-best file since Jan. 1 (28-12), however Denver has struggled not too long ago. Earlier this month, it misplaced 5 of six video games, together with losses to the San Antonio Spurs (19-56) and Chicago Bulls (36-39).
Their group information are shut, however you could possibly argue Embiid deserves an edge enjoying in the more durable Eastern Conference.
Bottom line
Reigning MVP Jokić hasn’t executed fairly sufficient to hitch Bill Russell (1960-63), Wilt Chamberlain (1965-68) and Larry Bird (1983-86) as the solely NBA gamers to win three straight MVPs.
Embiid ought to win the 2023 NBA MVP award.
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