Don’t worry at all about Amon-Ra St. Brown

As fantasy draft season ramps up, there are quite a few questionable selections to be made at each juncture.

Do you danger Christian McCaffrey struggling one other harm and being out for a lot of the season, or go along with the safer choice of Jonathan Taylor? Do you are taking Travis Kelce at the flip, or go for one more working again with upside like Javonte Williams or D’Andre Swift?

When the center rounds come alongside, more often than not, these selections revolve round what broad receivers have the largest upside. That’s the place Lions’ second-year receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown is available in.

We’ve seen his upside. During his torrid six-game stretch between Weeks 13 and 18, solely Cooper Kupp scored extra fantasy factors than St. Brown. He was an absolute league winner and thus flew up 2022 fantasy draft boards.

However, because the time since these video games has grown, the eagerness fantasy followers had for St. Brown has wained, turning into doubt. Can St. Brown proceed that dominant streak with a wholesome T.J. Hockenson and D’Andre Swift? What about new acquisition D.J. Chark? How lengthy earlier than Jameson Williams is wholesome sufficient to play and steal targets? There’s no means St. Brown can rating 5 touchdowns in six video games once more in such a low-end offense, proper?

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These are all professional considerations. I feel probably the most prevalent is the supply of targets, proper? Swift and Hockenson will get theirs, and with such a very good offensive line, it’s possible that the Lions will attempt to run the ball loads early in video games. I wouldn’t count on St. Brown to proceed his dominant streak, however I wouldn’t be too apprehensive about him. Based on how different gamers in comparable conditions to St. Brown previously have carried out later of their careers, St. Brown ought to be seen as nothing decrease than a WR2, with huge WR1 upside.

Drafted within the fourth spherical of the 2021 NFL draft, St. Brown earned a receiving grade of 79.4 from Pro Football Focus. Here’s an inventory of each broad receiver drafted within the third spherical or later who earned a receiving grade of 80.0 or extra their rookie season:

The tweet consists of Amon-Ra St. Brown within the record. That’s not the case, though he’s very shut and positively worthy of being put in the identical dialog as these on the record.

Here’s one other truth. Kupp had a rookie receiving grade of 78.5. That was 2017. He acquired injured and missed half the season in 2018. In his subsequent full season, Kupp completed because the WR4 in each commonplace and PPR codecs. Who was his quarterback? Jared Goff. Who is St. Brown’s quarterback now? You get the purpose.

What’s even crazier is that Kupp was on tempo in 2018 to imitate his 2019 season. In half as many video games in 2018, Kupp had accrued 48.8 p.c of his 2019 receiving yards, 60 p.c of his 2019 touchdowns, and 42.6 p.c of his 2019 receptions. If Kupp continued that tempo in 2018, he would’ve completed that season with 80 receptions, 1,132 yards, and 12 touchdowns — good for 267.7 fantasy factors (while you have in mind his 25 yards dashing). That’s additionally assuming Kupp would get completely no extra dashing work in these eight weeks he didn’t play. That level whole would’ve ranked Kupp tenth in PPR fantasy factors that season.

Of course, there are arguments to be made. For one, the Rams offense was elite that yr. Sean McVay made Goff look like an MVP candidate, and now we all know that to not be wherever near the reality. Dan Campbell additionally promotes a way more run-heavy offense. It’s unlikely the 2022 Lions will throw the ball as a lot because the 2019 Rams did. However, as I mentioned earlier, I’m not wanting at St. Brown’s ceiling, I’m attempting to inform everybody that his ground isn’t as little as some individuals are making it appear. Kupp needed to compete with Robert Woods for catches in 2018 and 2019. As proficient as Hockenson and Swift are, they’re not receivers and doubtless received’t steal as many targets away from St. Brown as we expect.

Also, I’m not apprehensive about DJ Chark… like at all. The man is coming off an harm that pressured him to overlook 15 video games final yr. When wholesome, he’s dropped in manufacturing every of the previous three seasons, and his largest competitors for targets over the previous two years have been Marvin Jones, Keelan Cole, and Laviska Shenault. He may steal some crimson zone targets away (Chark is 6-foot-4 after all), however other than that, I feel Campbell and firm are going to construct across the man whose explosiveness they noticed first hand final yr.

The largest query round St. Brown ought to be when Williams goes to return to motion. The rookie receiver has already been placed on the group’s NFI record and can miss the primary 4 video games of the season. Even if Williams comes again instantly afterward, it normally takes rookie receivers a while to regulate to their new scheme. Justin Jefferson didn’t get away till Week 3 in 2020. He had solely 5 catches for 70 yards within the first two weeks, and that was with a full offseason price of follow. Let’s assume the worst and say that Williams breaks out within the Lions’ seventh recreation then, which might put him on the identical timeline as Jefferson. In that 2020 season, Minnesota’s Adam Thielen nonetheless completed because the WR10 in PPR codecs that yr, and that was with a wholesome Jefferson for the complete season. St. Brown is youthful and extra explosive than Thielen was in 2020. To assume {that a} group can’t preserve two fantasy related receivers in the identical season is ludicrous. It may drag Hockenson and Swift down a bit, however St. Brown has the expertise to stay related even when Williams turns into the subsequent Jefferson.

Is St. Brown’s scenario excellent? No. Like I mentioned, there are legitimately necessary questions that should be answered, however if you happen to’re a type of guys finding out up on your draft within the subsequent few days and dropping St. Brown down your large board, apprehensive about how far he can fall in Detroit, transfer him again up proper now.

According to the ESPN ADPs, St. Brown goes as a low-end WR2 proper now, being chosen round decide 65 because the WR24, round guys like Darnell Mooney, DK Metcalf, and… Marquise Brown (gross). He’s acquired upside for a lot extra, with a ground that appears fairly protected to me. Do no matter you wish to do, however except he will get harm, there’s a number of purpose to suspect that St. Brown will end 2022 as a prime 10-to-15 WR in fantasy.