How much does ‘peaking late’ lead to deep Stanley Cup playoff runs?

“They peaked at the right time.” We’ve heard that expression used to describe late-blooming Stanley Cup playoff juggernauts for years. The 2018-19 St. Louis Blues are the last word instance: final place in early January, second-half turnaround, greatest file within the league over their closing 10 video games, eventual champions.

Like the beer-bellied, balding former beginning quarterback trudging into his high-school reunion, you don’t need to peak early, proper?

If you’ve adopted my work lengthy sufficient, you’ll know I get pleasure from difficult hockey adages to see in the event that they ring true once we dig in to the information. Are the 2018-19 Blues the norm or the exception? How much does it matter to play your greatest hockey within the stretch run of a season?

On one hand, it’s laborious to examine the information from each crew and each season with out understanding the subjective conditions. The 2014-15 Chicago Blackhawks, as an example, struggled down the stretch as a result of their celebrity Patrick Kane was out with a damaged collarbone. He returned for Game 1 of the postseason, and Chicago was off and operating to a 3rd Cup in a five-year stretch. Also, groups that clinch playoffs spots early usually have the posh of load-managing their prime gamers, which may lead to a dip in crew efficiency in meaningless video games.

I counter that notion with: The information nonetheless matter in that context, too. Whether a contending crew is legitimately battling a full-strength roster or just dulling its senses with video games that don’t affect the standings, how both state of affairs interprets to playoff efficiency is significant data.

So if we take a look at groups that made deep playoff runs previously 10 postseasons, what number of of them carried out properly within the closing 10 video games of the common season? I’ll outline “deep” as being one of many closing 4 groups standing in a given 12 months.

For the sake of this train, I’m discounting the 2019-20 season, as a result of groups went greater than 4 months between enjoying regular-season and playoff video games due to the pandemic, so the connection between late-season efficiency and playoff destiny clearly was very completely different. I changed 2019-20 with 2011-12 to give us a correct 10-season pattern.

Here’s how the convention finalists of the previous 10 (non-bubble) seasons fared of their closing 10 regular-season video games. To keep away from falling into the “good teams win, Captain Obvious” lure, I’ll embrace the groups’ full-season season ranks within the standings too, as we’d like to see if total season efficiency correlates stronger to deep playoff runs than peaking late.

Noteworthy findings

– The common factors proportion of the previous 40 convention finalists over their closing 10 regular-season video games was .634. Their common rank within the standings over their closing 10 video games was 11^th. Their common rank within the full-season standings, nonetheless, was even greater at seventh.

– 37.5% of the convention finalists had top-five information within the league over their closing 10 video games; 37.5% had top-five full-season information. 47.5% had top-10 information over their closing 10 video games; 70% had top-10 information within the full season.  

– Only 12.5% had bottom-10 information over their closing 10 video games, and simply 5 of the previous 40 convention finalists had been even under .500 over their closing 10 video games.

Conclusion

It doesn’t appear to be completely crucial for you to obliterate your competitors just like the 2018-19 Blues and be the greatest crew within the NHL down the stretch, however the overwhelming majority of convention finalists had been no less than respectable groups down the stretch, with 87.5% enjoying no less than .500 hockey. That tells us you ideally don’t need to be unhealthy in your closing video games of the season. However, the correlation is clearly stronger between being a great crew all season and making a deep playoff run.

So whereas the late-season surge is a enjoyable narrative, it’s not as persistently as essential as being a powerful crew wire to wire. Peaking late? We’ll name it barely overrated but additionally not a nasty factor to do.