It is Week 4 within the NFL.
Time to speak in regards to the New York Jets’ future at quarterback.
Alas, the Jets discover themselves in a quarterback conundrum, one which has felt endless for the previous couple of … many years. Zach Wilson is clearly not the answer, now or sooner or later. This season feels prefer it might go off the rails rapidly, if it hasn’t already, ought to he stay the starter. The Jets are 1-2 and face the Kansas City Chiefs, the defending Super Bowl champions, on Sunday evening.
There is lots of dialogue about what the Jets ought to do at quarterback proper now — signal Carson Wentz, commerce for Gardner Minshew, and so forth. — however that might solely present a brief repair. They signed Trevor Siemian to the apply squad on Tuesday, however he’s not precisely a playoff-caliber quarterback, both. Siemian, 31, misplaced the battle to be Joe Burrow’s backup to Jake Browning over the summer season.
There are professional questions on what the Jets’ future appears to be like like at quarterback, whether or not Aaron Rodgers returns in 2024 or not. Right now, he appears to wish to play subsequent season.
With Rodgers out with an Achilles tendon tear, the Jets are clearly now not contenders in 2023, like they have been alleged to be. If this season goes poorly sufficient, it’s honest to wonder if it should price anybody (like coach Robert Saleh) their jobs. That additionally components into the equation. There are a couple of alternative ways this could go.
Maybe it ends with the Jets lastly determining the quarterback place. History says: Don’t financial institution on it.
But right here is all the things to contemplate: from Rodgers, to Wilson, to potential 2024 free company targets and whether or not the Jets may think about drafting a quarterback within the first spherical (once more).
The Aaron Rodgers issue
When Rodgers spoke to Pat McAfee in his first interview post-Achilles harm, he threw down the gauntlet: “Give me the doubts. Give me the timetables. Give me all the things that you think can, should or will happen, because all I need is that one little extra percent of inspiration; that’s all I need. Give me your timetables. Give me your doubts. Give me your prognostications, and then watch what I do.”
Clearly, he’s extremely motivated. Rodgers additionally didn’t say something definitive, although, and is liable to altering his thoughts. Remember: By his personal admission, he was 90 % positive he would retire till his “darkness retreat” in February.
Rodgers has lots of time to sit down round and take into consideration his future. Right now, he’s mendacity round his house in Malibu, ready for the clearance to fly again to New Jersey to be with the Jets as he rehabs.
If Saleh and normal supervisor Joe Douglas wish to discover solace in something, it’s that the promise (or theoretical promise) of Rodgers returning in 2024 ought to hold their jobs secure, until this season really turns right into a catastrophe. If the Jets fall in need of the playoffs, once more, regardless of having a playoff-caliber roster, it wouldn’t be out of character for proprietor Woody Johnson to name for some kind of main change. The Jets’ offense has been the worst within the NFL by most metrics, which might presumably put offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett on the chopping block.
But bear in mind: Rodgers has publicly acknowledged since his introductory information convention that Hackett was the highest motive why he in the end determined to hitch the Jets. If they moved on from Hackett, would that change Rodgers’ plan? Rodgers has additionally spoken extremely of Saleh. This all begs the query of how dedicated Rodgers really is to taking part in for the Jets — and nobody else — in 2024.
The Jets in all probability will probably be 1-3 after Sunday’s recreation towards the Chiefs. In a worst-case situation, what in the event that they win someplace within the vary of 4 to 6 video games?
That’s not even factoring within the different facet of the Rodgers equation: He was already considered by some across the league as on the decline, as a 39-year-old quarterback coming off his worst season with the Packers. In 2024, he’ll be a 40-year-old quarterback coming off Achilles surgical procedure. And even when it goes effectively, would Rodgers really wish to hold taking part in past subsequent yr?
These are all unanswerable questions proper now, however all issues the Jets might want to issue into their decision-making subsequent offseason — and to begin eager about ahead of later.
Zach Wilson, and tips on how to transfer on
Maybe Rodgers’ future is unclear. But Wilson’s will not be.
He will not be an NFL-caliber beginning quarterback, it doesn’t matter what Saleh mentioned after Wilson’s latest stinker, a 15-10 loss to the Patriots.
“Sometimes the box score doesn’t always tell the story,” Saleh mentioned.
Saleh benched Wilson twice final season — first for Mike White, then for Chris Streveler throughout a Week 16 loss to the Jaguars. Saleh didn’t even think about taking part in Wilson in Week 18 towards the Dolphins, a meaningless recreation after the Jets had already been eradicated from the playoffs.
Now, Saleh appears to be in much less of a rush to bench him once more. Until Tuesday, Tim Boyle was the Jets’ solely different choice at quarterback, as Douglas had confoundingly declined to signal anybody else within the weeks since Rodgers’ harm.
“I think he’s playing with confidence,” Saleh mentioned of Wilson. “I think he’s delivering, he’s throwing the ball accurately when it’s in timing and rhythm, and his foot hits his backstep and he lets that thing rip, it’s pretty. He’s doing a really nice job in that regard.”
Per TruMedia, Wilson ranks final amongst 34 qualifying quarterbacks in completion share (52.4), passer score (57) and EPA per dropback (-0.30), and his common time to throw (3.12 seconds) is the longest within the NFL. He additionally ranks thirty first on cross makes an attempt touring 20-plus yards, thirty first in touchdown-to-interception ratio and thirty second in yards per cross try. Pro Football Focus ranks him thirty second of 34 qualifying quarterbacks with just one “big time throw” in 84 cross makes an attempt.
GO DEEPER
Joe Namath: ‘I’ve seen sufficient of Zach Wilson’
The Jets shouldn’t be taking part in one other recreation with him as their beginning quarterback, and they definitely can’t go into 2024 with the danger of getting to play him once more. Ultimately, one of many greatest errors the Jets made this offseason was not bringing in a veteran quarterback to compete with Wilson to be Rodgers’ backup. It appears to be like particularly unhealthy after different high quality backups signed elsewhere for affordable, like Minshew (one yr, $3.5 million), Teddy Bridgewater (one yr, $3 million), Josh Dobbs (one yr, $2 million) and White (two years, $8 million).
Wilson can’t be the Jets’ starter in 2024. He can also’t be their backup. Cutting him can be pricey — $11.1 million lifeless cap, zero financial savings — so possibly they will persuade somebody to take Wilson off their palms for a conditional late-round decide. Baker Mayfield (the 2018 No. 1 decide of the Browns) was traded to the Panthers for a fifth-round decide in 2022, however he’d completed greater than Wilson has thus far. The Jets may need to accept a seventh.
Zach Wilson was alleged to spend 2023 watching and studying from Aaron Rodgers. (Vincent Carchietta / USA Today)
If Rodgers stays …
The Jets nonetheless must make some strikes at quarterback. The No. 1 precedence this offseason can be so as to add a greater No. 2 quarterback, and additionally decide whether it is value drafting a quarterback to develop for the longer term. I’d heard the Jets have been even keen to choose a quarterback in 2023 if the best one had fallen to them (none did).
If the Jets merely add a veteran backup, some projected free-agent options embody Tyrod Taylor, Jameis Winston, Jacoby Brissett, Drew Lock, Tyler Huntley, Minshew and Dobbs.
As for the NFL Draft: What if Rodgers sticks round? The Jets will hold their first-round decide in 2024 since Rodgers received’t play 60 % of the team’s snaps this season. Instead, the Packers get the Jets’ second-round decide as a part of the Rodgers commerce.
GO DEEPER
NFL Draft order 2024 projections: Will the Bears declare the No. 1 decide once more?
I requested Nick Baumgardner, one among The Athletic’s draft writers, for his or her quarterback options subsequent spring. Here’s what he informed me:
“With the roster so strong elsewhere, the Jets can enter the Caleb Williams-Drake Maye sweepstakes if they wish. It would cost a lot, of course — a bunch of future picks (including multiple firsts and likely a sweetener). New York could do this with or without a healthy Rodgers, though sitting a player like Williams or Maye for a year doesn’t really feel worth it.
“A more reasonable situation could be to just stick and pick. This draft class is the best we’ve seen at the QB position in years, and not just at the top. The depth here is terrific. Williams and Maye will be gone early, but Texas’ Quinn Ewers, Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy or even Duke’s Riley Leonard could be reasonable options to sit behind Rodgers for a year before walking into a great situation. All would fit the Jets’ current system and are flexible enough to play in others. These are young passers who have first-round traits in terms of arm talent and athleticism but might require some time before finding their groove in the NFL. The talent outweighs the bad habits, but bad habits exist here. Learning under Rodgers would be terrific for any of these guys.
“The Jets could also just wait and play the board, especially if Rodgers is back healthy for one more year. The idea of snagging Oregon’s Bo Nix or LSU’s Jayden Daniels in a later round is also intriguing. Losing Rodgers is a disaster and this season is going to be really hard for Jets fans, obviously. But there is hope here thanks to the depth of this upcoming QB class.”
If Rodgers goes …
Well, then the Jets virtually definitely would look into drafting a younger quarterback. If Rodgers not returning additionally means Douglas and/or Saleh have been fired, that might change into extra possible. If Rodgers didn’t return and Douglas was retained? Then the Jets is perhaps extra keen to pursue a veteran who may help them win immediately.
In phrases of free brokers, the Jets might attempt their hand (once more) at signing Kirk Cousins. The Jets regarded into Matthew Stafford this offseason earlier than getting Rodgers. And the connection between Kyler Murray and the Cardinals bears watching.
Ultimately, although, if Rodgers doesn’t return, it’s attainable the Jets merely flip to a different rebuild.
(Top illustration: Samuel Richardson / The Athletic; photographs: Patrick McDermott and Al Bello / Getty Images)
The Football 100, the definitive rating of the NFL’s greatest 100 gamers of all time, goes on sale this fall. Pre-order it right here.
Discussion about this post