The NHL season kicks off for actual tomorrow night (the 2 appetizer video games in Prague don’t depend, particularly as a result of they concerned the Sharks), or because it’s identified for many of the hockey protecting world, “Six months of how does this affect the Leafs?” Yep, the game’s greatest cleaning soap opera, the query of whether or not or not the Leafs could make it to May, will get one other go beginning Wednesday night.
The Leafs are basically operating it again once more, as there haven’t been many adjustments to the forwards or the protection this yr. Calle Jarnkrok was introduced in to assist increase the third line, however that’s basically it. Other than that, it’s the lineup you’ve come to know and…know. Auston Matthews on the highest line subsequent to Mitch Marner, John Tavares on the second when he returns from harm, William Nylander avoiding all of the rotten greens Leafs followers throw at him whereas declaring he’s the high-priced ahead who needs to be traded as a result of he was the one who wasn’t born in Swift Current or London or no matter. They’ll nonetheless try to make up the third and 4th line with no matter they picked out of abandoned workplace areas and alleys, be they draft picks for veterans nobody else needed however billed as simply wanting to be in Toronto so desperately.
The solely change anybody will discover is as soon as once more in net. Where as soon as stood Freddy Andersen, who was then usurped by Jack Campbell, now stands Matt Murray. And very similar to the earlier two, our questions have to be, “Um…you’re like, serious with this?”
The Leafs themselves and their followers will counter that in contrast to Andersen and Campbell, Murray comes with precise Cup-pedigree. And that’s true. He was in the crease for 2 Cup wins for the Penguins in a row, and a kind of he was backstopping your entire run (he got here in midway via the 2017 triumph thanks to harm). However, 2017 is getting awfully distant in the rearview mirror, and Murray hasn’t actually efficiently negotiated the marathon of an 82-game common season as a starter and accomplished it nicely. After that 2017 Cup he took over as starter for the Pens for 2 seasons, and was middling to okay whereas getting round 50 begins. But he wasn’t adequate for the Penguins to be satisfied they shouldn’t hand the job to Tristan Jarry, which they rapidly did in the 2019-2020 season when Murray fell aside.
Murray was shipped off to Ottawa earlier than he had to be paid just like the two-time Cup-winning goalie he was, and issues didn’t go nicely in Ottawa in any respect. In two seasons in the capital, although a kind of was the COVID season that shall by no means be spoken of once more, Murray’s save-percentage didn’t crack .900. And he didn’t make greater than 25 begins in both. While the COVID season is wonky for analysis functions, it’s not just like the Canadian division was stuffed with heavy hitters. And at any time when Murray did get on the ice, he was getting pilfered.
Last season may not be as unhealthy because it appears to be like at first look. A .906 save-percentage total positively slants towards puke-tastic with out getting totally there, however in these 20 begins Murray did save 3.2 targets over anticipated, thanks to the precise puke-tastic nature of the Sens final season. At a per-game charge, that’s nonetheless solely in the center of the pack for goals-saved above anticipated, however it’s not less than consultant.
Still, it’s curious that the Senators, who’re clearly pointed to make a giant leap this yr with their offseason exercise, didn’t suppose Murray would offer the platform for his or her refurbished lineup to accomplish that. Anton Forsberg was simply that a lot better final yr, and more healthy.
The Leafs, for seemingly the seventeenth consecutive season, will argue that the remainder of the crew is nice sufficient that they will get by with mere common goaltending. If Murray can simply make all of the saves he’s supposed to, they’ll be positive. They’ll level to the Avs final season, who received a Cup with Darcy Kuemper placing up a .902 in the playoffs, after which rapidly let him toddle off to the Caps in free company, figuring anybody can put up a .902 when it issues most.
But the Leafs should not the Avs. While they could match prime strains with the champs, they don’t have the blue line that the Avs do, not less than not but. They can not push the play on each shift as aggressively as Colorado does, and Morgan Rielly is just not Cale Makar, regardless of how a lot they need it into existence. Rielly is nice, and possibly higher than I’ll admit he’s as a result of I like needling the Leafs, however Cup champs today include a top-five prime d-man. Is Rielly actually that?
The wildcard right here is Rasmus Sundin, who the Leafs have put on tilt with some barely contentious contract negotiations this season. Sundin’s metrics from final yr are fairly glittering, with an expected-goals share of 58.4 p.c even with beginning lower than half of his shifts in the offensive zone. Will Sandin earn prime 4 minutes? Do they’ve the stones to demote Jake Muzzin to the third pairing to accomplish that?
There is all the time a ticking clock for the Leafs, merely due to the warmth the followers and press exert onto the crew each season. But this time it appears a contact louder than earlier than, as Matthews is in the final two years of his contract and one more playoff flameout may start some intriguing conversations about how badly he needs to be in Toronto for the long-term. The similar goes for Nylander. The large adjustments that seemingly are all the time promised for Toronto each offseason however by no means occur may occur after this season if they will’t unfuck themselves in the primary spherical once more.
One factor going for the Leafs is that the division has come again to them a bit. Tampa has one more Final-run added to the odometer and misplaced Ondřej Palát. The Bruins are doing a Spinal Tap reunion tour. The Panthers are both trusting Sergei Bobrovsky to hold it going for one more season or to seamlessly let Spencer Knight take over in the crease whereas additionally trusting the entire thing to one of many greatest morons round who retains falling upwards as coach in Paul Maurice. The Leafs might win this division simply and possibly lastly duck a horrible first spherical matchup. Though that didn’t do a lot in opposition to Montreal two years in the past, did it? And the underside of this division is swinging upwards, as Ottawa, Detroit, and even Buffalo are going to be higher than they have been earlier than. Winning this division will actual a toll earlier than the playoffs that different divisions received’t.
But it’s going to nonetheless come down to Murray in some unspecified time in the future, whether or not he or the Leafs prefer it or not. The Leafs are an excellent defensive crew, which will get glossed over in the furor at any time when they belch up a frog in the playoffs. And it’ll have been six years since Murray was making large saves in the spring by the point these playoffs roll round. It solely takes one large save not made to sink the entire thing. The Leafs have been making an attempt to discount basement this place for some time now, and that is their newest whack at it. If this doesn’t work, then what?
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