A soccer recreation is admittedly contested amongst 4 groups: two offenses and two defenses. In latest seasons, although, explosive offenses have dominated a lot of the protection. Each playoff staff’s chances are high often mentioned in phrases of offensive output, whereas defenses must be as dominant as the 49ers’ to outline a staff’s identification.
The Bills and Bengals are able to scoring outbursts and got here away with wild-card wins final week as huge favorites. But each groups didn’t cowl the unfold after struggling to comprise opponents that began backup quarterbacks.
The remaining playoff groups are as evenly matched as they’ve been all yr, and that’s very true of the offenses. Of the eight groups left in the postseason, seven completed the common season in the high 10 for offensive effectivity, whereas solely 5 have top-10 defenses. Those stronger defenses ought to present the edge in this weekend’s divisional spherical matchups.
Last week’s report: 2-3-1
All occasions Eastern.
Saturday’s Games
No. 4 Jacksonville Jaguars at No. 1 Kansas City, 4:30 p.m., NBC
Line: Kansas City -9 | Total: 52.5
The Jaguars have performed their greatest once they’ve been anticipated to do the least. After beginning with a 3-7 report that left Jacksonville manner exterior the playoff image, the staff received six of their remaining seven regular-season video games to power its manner in. In the wild-card spherical towards the Chargers, Trevor Lawrence threw 4 picks in the first half, seemingly burying the Jags with a 27-0 deficit. But the Jaguars rallied for one in all the largest comebacks in playoff historical past.
By that logic, the underdog Jaguars may placed on one other present in a recreation they’re not anticipated to win — enjoying top-seeded Kansas City, who had the N.F.L.’s greatest regular-season offense. Because Kansas City has been so good, the staff has laid huge numbers in recreation after recreation and received a whole lot of video games it didn’t cowl. In its final 9 dwelling video games, they’re 1-7-1 towards the unfold. That might be as a result of the market is giving them too many factors for home-field benefit. It additionally might be a consequence of a protection that likes to get aggressive when enjoying with a snug lead.
Kansas City’s protection — which ranks twentieth in passing protection, per Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (D.V.O.A.) metric — takes extra possibilities with their go rush when forward. It’s a high-risk, high-reward situation that may typically finish video games with a quarterback sack or surrender huge performs late. Time operating down, enjoying from behind, that’s when Lawrence and firm have shined. Pick: Jaguars +9
No. 6 Giants at No. 1 Philadelphia Eagles, 8:15 p.m., Fox
Line: Eagles -7.5 | Total: 48
All season, the Giants thrived on climbing again into video games they trailed, with 4 fourth-quarter comebacks in the common season. But Daniel Jones could have given the greatest efficiency (301 passing yards and 78 speeding yards) of the wild-card weekend, when the Giants scored 4 touchdowns and performed from forward most of the manner in an upset of the Vikings. The lead owed as a lot to the staff getting again defensive starters from damage and their limiting the Vikings’ huge performs.
The protection should re-up on that effort towards the Eagles and Jalen Hurts, who enter the recreation rested due to final week’s bye. The Eagles beat the Giants in each of their regular-season conferences, however these video games are in all probability not terribly predictive: The Giants had vital offensive-line accidents in the first assembly (Philadelphia received, 48-22), and so they rested their starters in a 22-16 loss in Week 18.
Despite Jones’s dual-threat talents and the re-emergence of operating again Saquon Barkley in contract seasons for each, the Giants feasted on a loser’s schedule this season. Against top-10 defenses, the staff went 2-4-1. Those video games had been all inside attain: All however one had been determined by eight factors of fewer.
Philadelphia ranks sixth in defensive D.V.O.A. and first in passing D.V.O.A., and the Eagles are notably harmful go rushers: They are the N.F.L. sack leaders (70), led by Haason Reddick’s 16 and three different gamers with double-digit totals.
The line opened at 7, and sharp motion on the Eagles shortly moved it to 7.5. Since then, the Giants have taken the overwhelming majority of the cash, however the line hasn’t gone again to 7 but. It’s doable that by kickoff this unfold will get even larger, not smaller. Pick: Eagles -7.5
Sunday’s Games
No. 3 Cincinnati Bengals at No. 2 Buffalo Bills, 3 p.m., CBS
Line: Bills -5 | Total: 48
The Bills ought to be enjoying on emotion in this rematch of the Week 17 recreation that was canceled after Damar Hamlin went into cardiac arrest throughout the contest. Hamlin reportedly shall be in attendance on the Bills’ sideline for the first time, and that might give a significant morale increase. But the Bills have struggled with turnovers, notably when quarterback Josh Allen’s opportunistic throws ignore simple, clock-controlling quick pick-ups.
The Bengals have locked up opponents late thanks largely to defensive changes made in-game by the coordinator Lou Anarumo that restrict huge performs lengthy sufficient for the Bengals’ offense to do harm (and in some instances, defensive linemen have compelled turnovers that led to touchdowns).
Cincinnati may have the assist placing up factors. The offensive line’s damage woes continued final week when Jonah Williams went down with a knee damage in the wild-card win over the Ravens. Williams and Alex Cappa, one other starter on the line who injured his ankle in Week 18, didn’t apply Wednesday. Joe Burrow has tailored to the stress: He’s been getting the ball out in a median of two.49 seconds, the second quickest in the league behind Tom Brady.
Buffalo’s protection hasn’t been as robust in the final half of the season, particularly since shedding Von Miller to a knee damage in November, and so they’ve been compelled to blitz greater than they in all probability need to. Miami exploited Buffalo’s secondary, with the receiver combo of Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill getting 113 yards on 10 catches. If Skylar Thompson can do this, think about what Burrow can do with Tyler Boyd, Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase spreading the subject. Pick: Bengals +5
No. 5 Dallas Cowboys at No. 2 San Francisco 49ers, 6:30 p.m., Fox
Line: 49ers -3.5 | Total: 46
The Dallas Cowboys notched their first street playoff win in 30 years final week to arrange this throwback to the rivalry video games of the Nineteen Nineties. There have been some stylistic updates for each franchises, although.
Brock Purdy isn’t Steve Young, and he hasn’t needed to be. The 49ers have received 11 straight, with the rookie backup Purdy beneath heart for seven of these video games. His bevy of choices, from tight finish George Kittle to operating again Christian McCaffrey to Deebo Samuel, are quick and onerous to sort out, and so they rack up yards after the catch.
This received’t be an offensive bonanza for both facet, although, after each groups completely wrecked their opponents in the wild-card spherical. The market has made the San Francisco a 3.5-point favourite, the narrowest unfold of the weekend, and the complete of 46 factors is its lowest. The 49ers’ Nick Bosa and Cowboys’ Micah Parsons are the two main contenders for the defensive participant of the yr, so these quarterbacks ought to be pressured greater than they’ve been all season.
Dak Prescott is the higher of the two quarterbacks, however he’ll want his operating backs, Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott, to assist hold the 49ers’ protection sincere. San Francisco is best at defending the go than the rush, and went 2-4 in video games in which they allowed 99 or extra yards on the floor. Assuming the 49ers are capable of neutralize receiver CeeDee Lamb in addition to different groups have not too long ago, the Cowboys could have to depend on Dalton Schultz, and for Prescott to keep away from a catastrophe turnover. It’s lots that should go proper, however that’s why Dallas is getting the factors. Pick: Cowboys +3.5
How Betting Lines Work
A fast primer for many who aren’t aware of betting traces: Favorites are listed subsequent to a destructive quantity that represents what number of factors they have to win by to cowl the unfold. Buccaneers -2.5, for instance, implies that Tampa Bay should beat the Seahawks by not less than 3 factors for its backers to win their guess. Gamblers also can guess on the complete rating, which is whether or not the groups’ mixed rating in the recreation is over or beneath a preselected variety of factors.
Betting-market information is taken from Action Network’s Public Betting information, and features are taken from Unabated’s real-time-odds tracker.
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