By the time the N.F.L. playoffs arrive, the betting markets are simply coming into full bloom. The knowledge on every of the groups is germinated with a complete season’s price of stats, serving to the bookmakers generate their most predictive strains and bettors to make their most knowledgeable selections. As a outcome, the cash is extra evenly distributed than standard and there usually isn’t a lot fluctuation in the level spreads and totals.
That wasn’t the case heading into this postseason’s wild-card spherical, with Baltimore and Miami each anticipated to play with out their franchise quarterbacks and uncertainty remaining over which of their backups would begin.
There are additionally a couple of mismatches, a few double-digit level spreads, and a few intrigue round personnel choices. They don’t name it the wild-card spherical for nothing.
All Times Eastern.
Saturday’s Games
No. 7 Seattle Seahawks at No. 2 San Francisco 49ers, 4:30 p.m., Fox
Line: 49ers -10 | Total: 42.5
Most preseason predictions had the Seahawks ending amongst the league’s worst groups, primarily due to the perceived downgrade at quarterback from Russell Wilson to Geno Smith. The season didn’t fairly prove that method, and the Seahawks are in the playoffs for the tenth time in Coach Pete Carroll’s 13 seasons in Seattle. Kudos. Now Seattle enters as double-digit underdogs towards the division-rival 49ers, who’ve gained 10 straight video games.
San Francisco swept the regular-season conferences, together with a 21-13 win in Week 15, when the rookie quarterback Brock Purdy made his first highway begin. Purdy ought to proceed to learn from enjoying in the quarterback-friendly Shanahan offense with Deebo Samuel and Christian McCaffrey as his high choices. In that system, Purdy doesn’t must throw deep balls as a result of the 49ers’ pass-catchers have the highest yards after catch common (6.8) in the league. San Francisco must also be capable of run effectively towards Seattle’s protection, which misplaced linebacker Jordyn Brooks and nostril deal with Bryan Mone to season-ending accidents.
The 49ers ought to win, however San Francisco does have an Achilles’ heel: The protection holds opponents to leaguewide lows in common yards and factors allowed, nevertheless it was one in every of the N.F.L.’s worst at overlaying deep passes. Smith is the league’s most correct quarterback on passes over 20 yards this season, so the Seahawks can nonetheless likelihood a couple of huge performs to cowl a two-score unfold. Pick: Seattle +10
No. 5 Los Angeles Chargers at No. 4 Jacksonville Jaguars, 8:15 p.m., NBC
Line: Jaguars +2.5 | Total: 47.5
This recreation options the two ascendant quarterbacks who’ve led their groups to new heights: Justin Herbert, 24, helped the Chargers earn a playoff berth for the first time since 2018, and Trevor Lawrence, 23, has been amongst the league’s most correct passers in the second half and the Jaguars have gained six of their final seven video games.
When these two groups met in Week 3, the Jaguars blew the Chargers out, 38-10. Jacksonville’s protection, led by edge rusher Josh Allen’s 4 quarterback hits, held Herbert to a passer score of 74 as Herbert performed via a rib harm.
Herbert is wholesome now, however loads of different Bolts aren’t after Coach Brandon Staley’s inexplicable choice to play all of his starters for 3 quarters in a meaningless Week 18 recreation towards the Broncos. Receiver Mike Williams left that recreation on a cart and reportedly needed help walking afterward. Pass rusher Joey Bosa might have aggravated his groin harm final week in his second week again from injured reserve after lacking 12 video games.
Lawrence is a headliner however the Jaguars have run effectively based mostly on their matchups (gaining over 140 yards on the floor in wins towards the Cowboys and Jets) and Travis Etienne completed in the high 10 amongst operating backs for yards per recreation and per carry. The market is break up practically down the center on this recreation, and the line has bounced round each side of the zero. We will take all the factors we will discover on the residence crew. Pick: Jaguars +2.5
Sunday’s Games
No. 7 Miami Dolphins at No. 2 Buffalo Bills, 1 p.m., CBS
Line: Bills -12.5 | Total: 44.5
These A.F.C. East groups break up their two conferences this season, and each video games have been hard-fought affairs. Whether this recreation might be a repeat of these performances largely is dependent upon Miami’s harm scenario. The line for this recreation was as little as 9 factors on rumors that Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa would play. Tagovailoa was dominated out along with his second concussion in eight weeks, and the line climbed as excessive as 13.5 on the information that the Dolphins deliberate to start out the rookie seventh-round decide Skylar Thompson.
In the regular-season finale towards the Jets, Thompson was restricted to display performs and designed runs somewhat than deeper passes on key third- and fourth-down performs. Miami pulled off an unpleasant 11-6 victory regardless of not scoring a single landing. Along the method, operating again Raheem Mostert broke a thumb. The Dolphins common 25.5 factors per recreation when Tagovailoa performs and 16.3 when he doesn’t, so don’t count on a hobbled Miami to place up a lot offense towards a second-ranked protection in below-freezing temperatures (The forecast is 24 levels at kickoff.).
The unfold is excessive, however must be manageable for a Bills crew that can doubtless present out for a house crowd that might embody their teammate Damar Hamlin. Pick: Bills -12.5
No. 6 Giants at No. 3 Minnesota Vikings, 4:30 p.m., Fox
Line: Vikings -3 | Total: 48.5
The Vikings gained 11 one-score video games and the Giants went 8-4-1 in such contests, so it appears a on condition that this one might be the most evenly matched recreation of the weekend. Though the line opened at 2.5, these numbers have been shortly purchased up and the quantity has settled in at 3, which appears to be so far as deep-pocketed Vikings-backers will go.
The Vikings have been anticipated to fade all season, largely due to their propensity for successful video games via unpredictable elements like turnovers and popping out forward in the penalty battle. Minnesota gained the Week 16 assembly between these two groups on a last-second subject purpose and the Vikings benefited from a bit luck, blocking a punt and getting two key takeaways. But the win wasn’t all luck: The crew additionally torched the Giants’ protection via the air on tight finish T.J. Hockenson’s 109 receiving yards (two touchdowns) and Justin Jefferson getting 133 yards and a rating.
This week, the Giants’ protection returned cornerback Adoreé Jackson, linebacker Azeez Ojulari, and lineman Leonard Williams in restricted roles in follow and defensive again Xavier McKinney was again to taking full reps. Having any of them obtainable on Sunday would lend wanted assist towards the Vikings’ formidable passing assault. In the most lopsided market thus far this week, 90 p.c of the cash guess on this recreation has been on the Giants. Seems this gained’t be the week the professionals resolve to start out believing in the Vikings. Pick: Giants +3
No. 6 Baltimore Ravens at No. 3 Cincinnati Bengals, 8:15 p.m., NBC
Line: Bengals -7 | Total: 40.5
Didn’t we simply see this recreation? The Bengals lit up the Ravens, 27-16, on Sunday, however this weekend’s playoff matchup ought to look totally different than the standard A.F.C. North rivalry recreation. The star Baltimore quarterback Lamar Jackson is predicted to overlook his sixth recreation with a sprained knee ligament, and Anthony Brown has taken starter snaps throughout follow, although Tyler Huntley hasn’t been dominated out. When these groups performed final week with Brown at quarterback, the level unfold was 11 and the Bengals pushed. This week, the line has shrunk to an costly 7 and has held there even after the information that Jackson didn’t follow.
The Ravens’ cross rush labored final week towards Cincinnati’s offensive line, which misplaced proper guard Alex Cappa to an ankle harm in the third quarter. Cappa is the second starter the Bengals have misplaced on the proper aspect, which ought to create issues for his or her run recreation and make life harder for quarterback Joe Burrow. Last week the Bengals rushed for less than 65 yards, and managed solely 90 complete yards and a subject purpose in the second half. Still, because of a giant first-half lead, it was all they wanted to win.
The Ravens rested tight finish Mark Andrews and operating again J.Ok. Dobbins final week, so their return will give the Bengals a unique problem. Cincinnati has gained eight straight video games and the crew’s momentum could also be too robust for Baltimore to plan on lastly making a deep playoff run. The Bengals are 20-3-1 towards the unfold going again to final season, as protected a decide as there may be this weekend. Pick: Bengals -7
Monday Night’s Game
Dallas Cowboys at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 8 p.m., ESPN
Line: Buccaneers +2.5 | Total 45.5
The Buccaneers (8-9) stumbled their method into the playoffs with a dropping report, squeaking out victories right here and there on the backs of a stout protection and quarterback Tom Brady’s late-game heroics to win the N.F.C. South. Coach Todd Bowles inexplicably continued to constantly run the ball on first down regardless of the crew averaging solely 3.6 yards per first-down rush — tied with the Indianapolis Colts for the worst common in the league.
There have been glimpses that Tampa Bay would open up the playbook in a must-win recreation towards the Carolina Panthers in Week 17. Brady had a gaudy 432 passing yards, together with 207 yards and three landing passes to Mike Evans, who had not caught a rating since Week 4. Having the elite offensive deal with Tristan Wirfs again in the lineup actually helped give Brady a bit extra time in the pocket to work.
The Cowboys are the favorites in this recreation, however they’re coming off a regular-season finale in which they allowed the Commanders to place up 309 complete yards of offense. Washington practically doubled the Cowboys’ output in a recreation that might have helped Dallas seize the No. 1 seed in the N.F.C. Since beating the brakes off the Colts in Week 13, the Cowboys have appeared a bit off: barely eking out a win towards the Texans, dropping in time beyond regulation to the Jags, and seeing Dak Prescott dutifully throw not less than one decide each week. The market hasn’t been very impressed with the Cowboys: By midweek, 63 p.c of the bets and 83 p.c of the cash had been guess on Tampa Bay.
Still, the Buccaneers have bedeviled this column, and we’ve been on the mistaken aspect of practically each one in every of their video games this season. If they don’t cowl this week, we will take some solace figuring out this might be the final time. Pick: Buccaneers +2.5
How Betting Lines Work
A fast primer for individuals who aren’t acquainted with betting strains: Favorites are listed subsequent to a detrimental quantity that represents what number of factors they have to win by to cowl the unfold. Buccaneers -2.5, for instance, implies that Tampa Bay should beat the Seahawks by not less than 3 factors for its backers to win their guess. Gamblers also can guess on the complete rating, which is whether or not the groups’ mixed rating in the recreation is over or underneath a preselected variety of factors.
Betting-market knowledge is taken from Action Network’s Public Betting knowledge, and contours are taken from Unabated’s real-time-odds tracker.
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