NFL Coach of the Year, MVP candidates and biggest surprises at midseason: Sando’s Pick Six

Cover 7 | Monday A day by day NFL vacation spot that gives in-depth evaluation of soccer’s biggest tales. Each Monday, Mike Sando breaks down the six most impactful takeaways from the week.

Just as nobody predicted, the NFL season neared its midpoint Sunday with the Minnesota Vikings presenting a recreation ball to Joshua Dobbs in a locker room full of individuals Dobbs barely knew.

The NFL, scripted? You can’t script what’s past comprehension, however with 135 of 272 regular-season video games in the books pending the Monday night time matchup, the Super Bowl groups from final season, the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles, do sit atop their respective conferences.

It’s a good time to dimension up the league.

The Pick Six column for Week 9 types via my midseason decisions for Coach of the Year, MVP, Defensive Player of the Year and extra. There’s an appreciation for Dobbs and his injured predecessor, Kirk Cousins, plus fast hits on the Giants, Raiders, Seahawks, Eagles and Cowboys. The full menu:

• Coach of Year: McDaniel, Campbell, Harbaugh?
• MVP race: Quarterback streak in jeopardy
• Defensive Player of the Year and extra
• Seven biggest surprises of the season
• Tanking? Dobbs, Vikings ship reminiscences
• Two-minute drill: Giants and the high choose

Now, on to the awards. Please maintain your applause til the finish.

1. Mike McDaniel is my Coach of the (Half) Year, edging out Dan Campbell and John Harbaugh.

My alternative:

Mike McDaniel, Miami Dolphins: McDaniel is bound to rejoice his choice right here the manner he celebrated his crew setting an NFL file for yards via 5 video games.

“Mission accomplished,” McDaniel joked then. “We had the whole time, the whole off-season, that was our goal, was output after five games.”

The Dolphins are 0-3 towards the solely contenders they’ve confronted, falling 48-20 to Buffalo, 31-17 to Philadelphia and 21-14 to Kansas City on Sunday. That doesn’t disqualify McDaniel right here as a result of he’s executed such an awesome job leveraging his personnel to get record-setting manufacturing from an correct however restricted quarterback.

“The offensive numbers and production speak for themselves,” a defensive coach from one other crew stated. “He is calling the offense, he is designing the offense, he’s creating the motions we haven’t seen in the NFL before. They look Canadian to us.”

The Dolphins have nice velocity at broad receiver, however with out McDaniel scheming open these gamers with inventive motions, quarterback Tua Tagovailoa would have a more durable time delivering the ball on time. Tagovailoa’s limitations turn out to be apparent when opponents disrupt that timing. That is why coaches and execs voted Tagovailoa into Tier 3 earlier than the season.

“Mike does an outstanding job in terms of schematics and looks and optics of things,” one other defensive coach stated. “It allows Tua to play fast, and Tyreek has space to run his routes. People can’t just roll to him all the time. He doesn’t just have to be a vertical guy or catch shallows and catch-and-runs. He can do it all. The offense showcases all that for him.”

McDaniel’s humility serves him nicely. Hiring senior assistants can really feel threatening for youthful coaches, however not McDaniel. He embraced including defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, who was calling defensive performs earlier than McDaniel was born.

“To me, McDaniel is the smartest man in the room, but won’t let you think he thinks it,” an exec stated.

Close behind:

Dan Campbell, Detroit Lions: The Lions are taking part in with expectations for the first time and live as much as them. The crew and metropolis have embraced Cambpell’s management, reviving a dormant franchise. The Lions are minus-1,000 favorites to win the NFC North and return to the playoffs, a significant accomplishment for the franchise.

“Campbell gets credit for overcoming the perception of him from ‘Hard Knocks’ a year ago and believing in his methods,” a crew exec stated.

Campbell’s candidacy is a continuation from final season when he overcame a 1-6 begin. His workers administration over the previous couple seasons — selling Ben Johnson to offensive coordinator, staying the course with Aaron Glenn on protection, making an in-season change of the defensive backs coach — appear to have been the proper ones.

“These were great moves,” a rival coach stated. “He makes sure his vision for playing style is fulfilled, but he is not just old-school Bill Parcells. They are one of the more aggressive fourth-down teams, for example. It’s a nice combination.”

GO DEEPER

NFL Power Rankings Week 10: Midseason report playing cards, and we’ve got a brand new No. 1

John Harbaugh, Baltimore Ravens: There have been occasions final offseason when it appeared doable Harbaugh had reached his shelf life in Baltimore, which may occur to even the finest coaches after so a few years in a single place. His quarterback was estranged, he was putting in a brand new offense and his crew hadn’t superior previous the divisional spherical since the 2012 season.

The potential for implosion was there. Instead, the Ravens are 7-2 after hammering Seattle 37-3 in Week 9. They rank eighth in offensive EPA per play whereas establishing a brand new identification with elevated use of three broad receivers and extra measured utilization of Lamar Jackson as a runner. The protection ranks second in EPA per play. It has allowed 9 touchdowns via 9 video games, matching the historic 2000 Ravens protection.

“I think it’s interesting that two of the three coaches here (Harbaugh and Campbell) do not call plays,” a veteran coach famous. “So much goes into the game plan, in-game decisions and everything else that you really have to be a top coach to do it all effectively.”

2. Quarterbacks have received MVP honors for 10 years working. The streak may finish this season.

This season has been removed from a showcase for the quarterback-driven passing recreation.

Tagovailoa and the San Francisco 49ers’ Brock Purdy rank 1-2 in EPA per cross play. It could be a bit harsh to name them level guards for extremely schemed offenses, however there’s some fact to the description. Patrick Mahomes could be the NFL’s finest participant, however his Chiefs are profitable largely with protection. The identical goes for the Ravens.

My alternative:

Tyreek Hill, Dolphins: Hill’s 1,076 yards rank sixth in NFL historical past via the first 9 video games of a season. Though no receiver poses a higher vertical risk, Hill additionally excels turning shorter routes into large good points. His willingness to persistently execute presnap motions at most velocity elevates his offense. Below we see how his nine-game yardage whole ranks.

Close behind:

A.J. Brown, Eagles: Brown’s 1,005 yards via 9 video games rank twentieth in league historical past, falling a single yard behind the career-best tempo for Jerry Rice, set in 1990. His file streak of six consecutive video games with at least 127 yards ended with a seven-catch, 66-yard recreation towards the Cowboys in Week 9.

Myles Garrett, Cleveland Browns: No defensive participant has received MVP honors from the Associated Press or Pro Football Writers of America since Lawrence Taylor in 1986. Could this be the yr with defenses having their manner? Garrett ranks second in sacks (9.5), fifth in strain charge (minimal 100 pass-rush snaps) and is tied for first in pressured fumbles (4). He is the dominant participant on the NFL’s runaway No. 1 protection by EPA and success charge.

3. Defensive Player of the Year, Rookies of the Year and the runaway winner for Comeback Player of the Year.

Defensive Player of the Year: Garrett. Garrett’s next-level work is with out rival. He leap-frogged an Indianapolis lineman cleanly to dam a field-goal strive in a tie recreation. He additionally induced Tennessee right into a delay penalty by repeatedly working throughout the formation after realizing the Titans have been shadowing his actions. See each performs under.

Myles Garrett went up and over to dam the FG 😳

📺: #CLEvsIND on CBS
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/iTs8HMaXlh pic.twitter.com/f844VPi1ea

— NFL (@NFL) October 22, 2023

I’m unsure I’ve EVER seen this earlier than!

Myles Garrett forces the Titans right into a delay of recreation penalty, as a result of they’re sending 2 offensive gamers wherever he aligns… WOW!

Garett has 3.5 sacks on the day. #DawgPound pic.twitter.com/2WrjTGqTod

— Emmanuel Acho (@EmmanuelAcho) September 24, 2023

Offensive Rookie of the Year: C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans. His five-touchdown efficiency throughout a 39-37 victory towards Tampa Bay pushed him previous Los Angeles Rams receiver Puka Nacua at the midpoint. Nacua has been the extra constant producer; he trails solely Hill and Brown in receiving yards. Stroud has the Texans at 4-4 and stuffed with hope.

When Stroud and the Texans took possession for the last time Sunday, they trailed Tampa Bay 37-33 with 46 seconds remaining. Seventy-five yards separated them from the finish zone. Stroud accomplished all 5 cross makes an attempt (minus one spike) for 75 yards and the profitable landing to Tank Dell.

Teams in related conditions — needing a landing to tie or win, having at least 75 yards to go, having 30-60 seconds left in regulation — lose virtually each time. The Texans have been in higher form than most, having preserved two timeouts. Still, the odds towards them have been steep.

Since 2000, groups going through that scenario had been 0-74 with fewer than two timeouts and 2-20 in any other case, per TruMedia. Stroud helped Houston declare the third victory from these dire circumstances (groups with lower than 30 seconds have been 0-130).

Houston received regardless of ending the recreation minus-15.6 EPA on protection and particular groups, worst in the league for Week 9. Since 2000, groups ending video games with between minus-17 and minus-14 mixed EPA on protection and particular groups have received simply 18 % of the time (95-432-3). Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Patrick Mahomes and Philip Rivers account for 28 of the 95 victories since 2000.

This throw and catch to arrange the game-winning landing.

CJ Stroud 🤝 Tank Dell pic.twitter.com/58yhquLlHE

— NFL (@NFL) November 5, 2023

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Jalen Carter, Philadelphia Eagles. Seattle’s Devon Witherspoon was the different main candidate right here, however with Seattle permitting 515 yards at Baltimore on Sunday, there will likely be a greater time to revisit his candidacy.

Comeback Player of the Year: Damar Hamlin, Buffalo Bills. In another yr, the New York Jets’ Breece Hall could be a straightforward alternative. What Hamlin overcame is with out precedent. His transfer to ascertain scholarships named for the 10 medical professionals who helped save his life in Cincinnati final season was the excellent gesture.

Last night time I had dinner with my heroes. 10 of the UC Medical Staff that helped save my life.

I shocked them with a scholarship named after every of them that can assist youth in Cincy to chase their desires.

Wouldn’t be right here if it wasn’t for them!🫶🏾 pic.twitter.com/sEOCDkwYvk

— 𝐃𝐚𝐦𝐚𝐫 𝐇𝐚𝐦𝐥𝐢𝐧 (@HamlinIsland) November 5, 2023

4. In a season with out true shock groups, there have nonetheless been stunning developments. Here are seven that stand out to me.

The Joshua Dobbs Experience: From Cleveland to Arizona to Minnesota and into Vikings lore with the profitable landing cross 5 days after becoming a member of the crew, with out significant observe reps. See merchandise No. 5 for extra on this one.

An NFL proprietor grooving to Meek Mill’s “Dreams and Nightmares”: Wait, it was the Colts’ Jim Irsay. Not stunning at all.

Hold up, wait a minute, ya’ll thought we have been completed. – Meek Mill (and additionally me) 🏈🕺 pic.twitter.com/itIc8xcNF0

— Jim Irsay (@JimIrsay) November 6, 2023

Bill Belichick Job Watch by Week 5: Arguably the most profitable coach in NFL historical past misplaced by a mixed 72-3 margin in successive weeks, together with 34-0 at house to the mediocre New Orleans Saints. The crew is 1-3 since then, 2-7 total and going through large questions.

Browns’ uncommon path: The Cleveland Browns are 5-3 regardless of Deshaun Watson lacking greater than half the offensive performs and Nick Chubb struggling a season-ending knee damage after solely 28 carries. Their offense ranks twenty ninth in EPA per play. Credit a dominant protection.

Colts’ reversal: The Colts have jumped from thirty second in offensive factors per recreation final season to eighth this season, 4 spots forward of the Chiefs, regardless of quarterback instability. Zack Moss ranks second to Christian McCaffrey in dashing yards. Josh Downs, the 5-foot-9, 172-pound receiver Indy chosen in the 2023 third spherical, has extra receiving yards than equally sized Ravens rookie first-rounder Zay Flowers.

Kansas City’s protection: The Chiefs personal the identical 7-2 file that they had final season, with an almost similar level differential, regardless of scoring 6.7 fewer factors per recreation. Mahomes vowed the offense would discover its manner. If that occurs, look out. Come to assume of it, look out regardless. The Chiefs are a troublesome out.

Carolina’s offense trails Arizona’s offense: The Panthers rank twenty eighth in offensive EPA per play, one spot under the Cardinals, regardless of polar reverse approaches to the quarterback place.

Carolina employed a veteran offensive head coach in Frank Reich and surrounded him with big-name assistants, together with Jim Caldwell. The Panthers additionally used the first choose in the 2023 draft for quarterback Bryce Young. All the offseason focus was on making ready Young for achievement.

Arizona employed a first-time head coach with a defensive background, then reduce its journeyman projected beginning quarterback, Colt McCoy, a pair weeks earlier than the season. The Cardinals then acquired Dobbs, began Dobbs, benched Dobbs, traded Dobbs and turned to Clayton Tune this week whereas awaiting Kyler Murray’s debut following offseason knee surgical procedure.

5. Kirk Cousins to Justin Jefferson? Try Joshua Dobbs to Brandon Powell for one of the most memorable Minnesota Vikings victories.

Think of all the arguments put forth encouraging groups to tank for improved draft standing, and then take into account what the Vikings’ 31-28 victory meant for all who skilled it, together with followers. There’s no manner Minnesota would commerce Sunday to select one slot increased in 2024.

We wanted each final man right this moment.#Skol pic.twitter.com/nPMlyiwzPg

— Minnesota Vikings (@Vikings) November 5, 2023

Dobbs handed for 2 touchdowns and rushed for one more on a day when coach Kevin O’Connell was explaining issues to him via the coach-to-quarterback headset, with teammates filling in particulars throughout their conferences in the huddle.

The day started with Vikings gamers honoring Cousins by carrying tribute T-shirts in pregame warmups. It ended with Hall of Famers equivalent to Warren Moon and Kurt Warner saluting Dobbs on social media.

The time will come for the Vikings to make large selections relating to their future at the place. Cousins is unsigned previous this season (as is Dobbs). As the chart under reveals, the Vikings’ offensive manufacturing spiked dramatically with Cousins’ arrival in 2018.

The future can wait. The Vikings’ instant focus ought to be on producing a commemorative recreation ball with Dobbs’ identify and pertinent particulars from his sweetest victory.

6. Two-minute drill: Giants in place to snag high choose in 2024

The Giants already had one eye on subsequent season once they traded defensive sort out Leonard Williams to Seattle final week. Losing quarterback Daniel Jones to a possible torn ACL throughout a 30-6 defeat at Las Vegas delivered an emotional blow that can linger. Longer time period, the crew might want to take into account its choices in the draft, particularly with a top-five choose all however assured.

The present 2024 draft order slots the Giants at No. 4, with upward mobility:

1. Arizona (1-8): Murray’s return may drop Arizona in the order.
2. Carolina (1-7): This choose belongs to Chicago, however the order is decided by Carolina, which performs the seventh-easiest remaining schedule.
3. Chicago (2-7): The Bears play the Panthers on Thursday night time and would possibly or may not enhance as soon as Justin Fields returns.
4. Giants (2-7): The Giants play the seventh-toughest remaining schedule.
5. New England (2-7): The Patriots face the Giants in Week 12.

The contract Jones signed throughout the offseason provides some flexibility if and when the time comes for such a dialogue to happen.

• Eagles at the bye: The Philadelphia Eagles head into their bye week with an 8-1 file after holding off the Dallas Cowboys 28-23. The break comes at a superb time for quarterback Jalen Hurts, who stayed in the recreation Sunday after aggravating a knee damage and offered out on a quarterback sneak whereas backed up, amongst different performs that absolutely burdened the joint.

The Eagles’ 8-1 begin is the finest for a crew coming off a Super Bowl loss since the 2000 Titans additionally received eight of their first 9. It’s significantly better than the most up-to-date Super Bowl losers began, as seen in the desk under.

• State of the Cowboys: As for the Cowboys, their schedule eases up with video games towards the Giants, Panthers and Commanders the subsequent three weeks. They will doubtless win large, which normally results in championship discuss from proprietor Jerry Jones, adopted by a giant letdown.

As for championships, the quantity of Texas-based professional sports activities groups to win titles extra lately than the Cowboys grew when the Texas Rangers received the World Series final week.

• Party time in Vegas: The Raiders firing up stogies to rejoice victory over the Giants of their first recreation since Antonio Pierce changed Josh McDaniels as coach appeared like nice enjoyable.

The Raiders have been smoking celebratory cigars after their first win with out Josh McDaniels 💨

Mark Davis was loving it 😂

🎥 ig/maxxcrosby pic.twitter.com/3zlvqGVm8n

— The Athletic (@TheAthletic) November 6, 2023

How the Raiders obtained into this example may very well be extra vital for the long-term outlook. Reports instructed gamers lobbied proprietor Mark Davis to make a training change.

The file on the discipline suggests McDaniels was ineffective as head coach. Davis’ processes don’t appear higher, with or and not using a victory over the Tommy DeVito-quarterbacked Giants.

The Colts received Jeff Saturday’s debut final season (over the Raiders), then dropped their seven remaining video games. The Raiders have the Jets, Dolphins and Chiefs subsequent. Let’s see what number of stogies they undergo after these video games.

• Seattle rocked: The Seahawks allowed 515 yards, together with 298 dashing, to Baltimore in the Seahawks’ first recreation since buying Williams from the Giants to fortify their defensive entrance. Their offense was thrice as dangerous from an EPA standpoint.

That’s a nasty mixture for a crew making an attempt to ascertain a brand new custom with a youthful roster.

The Seahawks beneath Pete Carroll as soon as went 65 consecutive regular-season and playoff video games with out shedding by double digits, the second-longest streak since the Twenties Bears, per Pro Football Reference. Their 37-3 defeat in Baltimore tied for second-worst of the Carroll period in Seattle, almost matching a 42-7 blowout vs. the Rams in 2017.

Seattle is now averaging 19.6 offensive factors per recreation, its lowest common this late in a season since 2021, when the Russell Wilson period was unraveling.

What does such a lopsided defeat imply for a crew that sees itself on the rise?

This was the tenth time in the previous decade a crew at least two video games above .500 misplaced by 30-plus factors throughout roughly the identical level in a season (Weeks 7-10).

It occurred final month when the Ravens blew out Detroit, 38-6.

Two groups rebounded properly.

The 2017 Buffalo Bills fell 47-10 to the Saints in November of that season, then completed 4-3 to succeed in the playoffs. The 2020 Buccaneers misplaced 38-3, additionally to the Saints, earlier than closing with a 5-2 mark and profitable the Super Bowl.

The different six groups mixed to complete 11-37 over the the rest of their seasons. That file counts the 2018 Bengals two occasions, as they have been blown out by 30-plus factors twice in a three-game stretch, in the end falling from 5-3 to 6-10.

(Top picture of Mike McDaniel and Tyreek Hill: Wesley Hitt / Getty Images)

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