The Los Angeles Chargers are an excellent soccer crew. Even within the absence of Keenan Allen and Mike Williams for components of the season, the downfall of JC Jackson, and the abysmal play of Jerry Tiller on the D-line — fortunately he simply obtained waived — the Chargers have performed their method to a 5-3 file and are very a lot within the thick of a division title on the midway level of the season.
This weekend, the Bolts play the San Francisco 49ers in SoCal in what appears to be like like an entertaining matchup between two low-end Super Bowl contenders. In actuality, although, San Francisco should completely wipe the ground with L.A. Not as a result of the Chargers’ file is healthier than their precise efficiency, however quite as a result of the 49ers match up phenomenally effectively.
Let’s begin with the elephant within the room, the issue everyone seems to be speaking about — the Chargers’ run protection. It’s no secret that Los Angeles does about as effectively at stopping the run because the NFL does at implementing roughing the passer. The offseason addition of Khalil Mack was purported to mitigate this downside, since Mack had been top-of-the-line edge defenders towards the run for a few years. He’s been good, however the remainder of the D-line has been underperforming, and people struggles have been amplified with the absence of All-Pro go rusher Joey Bosa. The Chargers are permitting essentially the most yards per rush of any crew within the NFL (5.7). They’re second within the NFL in EPA allowed per rush play as effectively, solely forward of the Cleveland Browns in that division.
Now, the Niners haven’t been an elite dashing crew this yr. In truth, they’ve been beneath common by way of each EPA and whole yards, however make no mistake, the 49ers’ id is as a run-heavy crew, and with Christian McCaffrey suiting up for his third sport with the crew, San Fran’s dashing assault might be an excessive amount of for the Chargers to deal with, even with the absence of left deal with Trent Williams.
Now, the 49ers’ secondary is a bit suspect. While most of the Niners’ devoted had been anticipating cornerback Jason Verrett to return quickly, he as a substitute suffered a season-ending Achilles harm in observe this week. Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert should have a straightforward time dissecting that banged-up secondary, however with each Keenan Allen and Mike Williams lacking this sport, it might come right down to Joshua Palmer, DeAndre Carter, and Gerald Everett to hold the L.A. passing assault. I don’t belief any of them to do severe injury.
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The Chargers’ dashing assault hasn’t been any higher. While Austin Ekeler is likely one of the greatest backs within the league, he hasn’t been very environment friendly as a ball service. Rather, he’s achieved most of his injury by the air. That stated, San Fran linebacker Fred Warner is likely one of the greatest within the NFL at following the ball out of the backfield and making open-field tackles. Ekeler might be in for heavy utilization this sport, however I wouldn’t anticipate him to get very far fairly often. Could he break one or two performs for giant positive aspects/touchdowns? Sure, however the 49ers are top-of-the-line groups within the NFL at defending performs out of the backfield.
According to OddsChecker US, bettors disagree with my sentiment. Despite the betting line shifting within the 49ers’ favor over the course of the week — from +5.5 at opening to +7 right this moment — 65 p.c of moneyline bets have gone in favor of Los Angeles. This is the primary time since Week 3 of 2021 towards Kansas City that the Chargers have been a landing underdog or worse. Perhaps that stable observe file is what’s pushing bettors towards the Bolts. Or maybe it’s the Chargers’ dominance over the 49ers within the twenty first century. L.A. has gained 4 of its final 5 towards San Francisco. Still, previous outcomes don’t point out future outcomes. Brandon Staley wasn’t even the Chargers’ head coach the final time these two groups performed.
With an emphasis on quick passes, energy runs, and effectivity out of the backfield, the 49ers are arguably the worst crew the Chargers might face all yr. Could they win? Absolutely. This is the NFL, and anybody can win on any given day. Also, I’m by no means going to be 100% positive of a wager towards Justin Herbert, however by each measure conceivable, San Fran should win this sport. While bettors appear positive that seven factors are too many for the Chargers to lose by, I virtually consider a double-digit loss isn’t out of the query. Then once more, the 49ers have a knack for dropping video games they shouldn’t — simply ask the Bears and Falcons — so possibly I’m studying an excessive amount of into this. I doubt it although.
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