Another week means one other heavy underdog getting tons of cash thrown its approach. This is attention-grabbing as a result of the canine appears to win when bettors throw some huge cash behind it. Just this season, most of the opinions I’ve written about have surrounded the 6-1 New York Giants. Big Blue has an unimaginable capacity to manage the tempo of play, dominate time of possession, but nonetheless handle massive performs — an enormous motive for his or her success regardless of an apparent lack of expertise.
The G-Men have labored their approach out of the underdog gap it appears. Instead, a brand new contender has joined the fray— the Carolina Panthers, who are being quarterbacked by a former XFL MVP, P.J. Walker.
According to OddsChecker US, 60 p.c of moneyline bets on the upcoming Panthers-Falcons sport have gone in favor of Carolina, who will probably be the street team in this contest.hat may really be a bonus. The Panthers have received their final two street matchups in opposition to Atlanta and inside this collection, the street team has wound up profitable every of the final 4 and 5 of the final six.
Furthermore, it’s arduous to move up on the Carolina Panthers after Walker and firm simply dominated the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21-3. That mentioned, the Falcons are 2-1 at house this yr with a win over the 49ers, so how dependable is the betting development actually?
The Dirty Birds run the ball at the second-highest charge in the NFL (60.6 p.c) — forward of solely the Chicago Bears (64 p.c). The Carolina Panthers have considered one of the finest run defenses in the NFL, at least in phrases of yards allowed per carry (4.1 yards allowed per rush — seventh in NFL). They’re additionally top-10 in defensive first down rush share (23.4 p.c), and really lead the NFL in anticipated factors added by their dashing protection (22.17), in accordance with Pro-Football-Reference.
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After all the pieces I simply mentioned, you’d in all probability assume I’d be leaning closely into Carolina’s favor as effectively, however I’m not. Why? Because San Francisco additionally has an elite run protection, and the Atlanta Falcons dominated the Niners.
Using the run sport to open up the passing assault is what made Atlanta so dominant in that sport. The Falcons weren’t very efficient operating the ball. Caleb Huntley and Tyler Allgeier averaged lower than 4 yards per carry. Sure, that’s fairly par for the course for any team taking part in in opposition to the 49ers, however except you’re averaging shut to 5 yards per carry, most groups are likely to run the ball much less as the sport progresses. Not Atlanta. The Falcons ran the ball with both Huntley or Allgeier 31 occasions, with 14 of these carries coming in the first half earlier than any regular team would begin giving into sport script. That doesn’t embody runs by QB Marcus Mariota or Avery Williams both. That quantity could be approach greater if that was the case.
In the passing sport, Mariota went 13-for-14 via the air. We all know he isn’t the most correct quarterback, however even he was capable of dissect the 49ers protection. Was a variety of it attributable to nice play design by head coach Arthur Smith? Probably. However, at least in the first half, most of Atlanta’s massive move performs didn’t come off play motion or fast display passes. They had been simply both good pre-snap reads, Atlanta receivers discovering a gap in protection, or Mariota stepping up and making a play together with his legs. Sure, the landing to MyCole Pruitt was off play motion, however in phrases of the drive down the subject nearly all of those aerial performs had been on fundamental dropbacks. Same goes for the Falcon’s second landing drive capped off with a Mariota dashing TD.
While Carolina’s offense appeared considerably potent final week, I’m not able to name a team led by Walker, DJ Moore, and D’Onta Foreman higher than San Francisco. Atlanta’s protection was capable of deal with a Christian McCaffrey-less 49ers team and shouldn’t have a tougher time with a Run CMC-less Panthers team. There’s simply no approach I see the Panthers dealing with the Falcons in addition to bettors appear to imagine. Considering the San Franmanhandled the Panthers just some weeks in the past, I’m leaning closely in Atlanta’s favor. Sure, Carolina has arguably a greater quarterback now, however that received’t be sufficient to grant a win. Give me Atlanta minus-four.
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