The MVP race through 13 weeks and Brock Purdy’s growing case: Sando’s Pick Six

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Football followers love MVP dialogue. We are going to have one right here after Brock Purdy’s San Francisco 49ers ran the defending NFC champion Philadelphia Eagles off their very own subject on Sunday.

Jalen Hurts, Dak Prescott, Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes and Tua Tagovailoa entered Week 13 as betting favorites to win the award. Purdy was subsequent, adopted by a giant drop to Josh Allen and C.J. Stroud within the subsequent tier.

It’s time to reassess not solely the MVP race, however the place Purdy suits into it after main San Francisco to landing drives on six consecutive possessions in opposition to the Eagles — solely the fifth time an offense has completed that since at the very least 2000, per TruMedia.

This version of the Pick Six column strips away every little thing anybody has thought of Purdy and his function within the 49ers’ success, focusing as a substitute on pure manufacturing. I’ve pulled the related numbers for the previous 10 MVP quarterbacks and will present precisely how the 2023 contenders stack up, with particular consideration on Purdy.

• MVP race: The case for Brock Purdy
• Playoff race: Packers & largest swings
• Looking towards the 2024 coach hiring cycle
• Let’s not overthink offensive declines
• Putting a roof over Geno Smith’s head
• Two-minute drill: LSU’s Daniels over North Carolina’s Maye

1. Not way back, we had been discussing whether or not Brock Purdy was a respectable beginning quarterback. Now, we’re asking whether or not he’s a respectable MVP candidate. The manufacturing says sure. So does the context.

Purdy completed the 49ers’ 42-19 victory in opposition to the Eagles with 314 yards and 4 landing passes. His receivers accounted for 212 yards after the catch, which performs into the pondering Purdy advantages from his receivers disproportionately. He doesn’t on the entire.

YAC accounts for 48.5 p.c of Purdy’s passing yards this season. The common is 47 p.c for beginning quarterbacks. The common was 48 p.c for the previous 10 MVP quarterbacks. Mahomes was at 54 p.c throughout his 2022 MVP season.

This sacks the YAC argument in opposition to Purdy.

Researching the place the previous 10 MVP quarterbacks ranked in key classes inside their award-winning seasons creates a profile we will apply to Purdy and the opposite betting favorites.

The desk beneath reveals the place these MVPs ranked in mixed EPA on go performs/QB rushes, EPA per go play and complete touchdowns. Focusing on these metrics solves for quantity and effectivity, whereas considering passing and dashing, with some acknowledgment of conventional stats (touchdowns are good).

Nearly all of the MVPs ranked close to the highest in all three classes. Cam Newton was an exception as a result of he began his MVP season slowly.

Viewing 2023 MVP favorites getting into Week 13 through the identical lens reveals Purdy on the prime, with Prescott shut behind. Josh Allen is third though his Buffalo Bills have a 6-6 file. Purdy and Prescott haven’t any actual blemishes. They are essentially the most respectable candidates. Purdy outproduced Prescott strikingly when the 49ers blew out the Cowboys earlier within the season, however our production-focused method doesn’t take that under consideration.

Looking past manufacturing for larger context is a part of the method. It can also distract.

Purdy advantages from a differentiating play caller and a number of sturdy receivers. So did Joe Montana (1989, 1990), Steve Young (1992), Brett Favre (1995-97), Kurt Warner (1999, 2001), Tom Brady (2007), Matt Ryan (2016) and so many others. That is how MVP seasons come collectively.

No one holds it in opposition to Montana or Favre that Mike Holmgren referred to as offensive performs for all 5 of their MVP seasons. Should Kyle Shanahan’s play calling disqualify Purdy?

There is one remaining visible to think about. Pressing “replay” on the chart beneath reveals game-by-game EPA on go performs and quarterback rushes for the 2023 MVP favorites. Toggling between “scores” and “ranks” gives totally different views on the identical knowledge.

One of the strains represents common game-by-game EPA manufacturing for the previous 10 MVP quarterbacks. Notice how carefully Purdy’s manufacturing tracks with theirs.

Using averages for the previous 10 MVP quarterbacks creates a line with out the peaks and valleys these quarterbacks skilled individually. This line represents the gold commonplace for evaluating MVP quarterback manufacturing.

Prescott has surged not too long ago. Tagovailoa bounced again in opposition to Washington on Sunday following a down stretch. Others vacillate week to week.

Purdy’s manufacturing tracks so carefully with the ten MVPs as to grow to be nearly indistinguishable in spots. No one is aware of what the longer term would possibly maintain. If the 49ers discover themselves taking part in from behind and the offense melts down in these pure passing conditions, we will revisit this dialog then. For now, it’s clear now we have reached the purpose the place arguing for Purdy’s MVP case is simpler than arguing in opposition to it.

Never in one million years would I’ve thought that I’d be slicing up snaps of Brock Purdy to make use of as educate tape for each pre- & post-snap processing and clear, environment friendly footwork in the identical precise method I’d completed with Drew Brees earlier than him. There are solely a handful of how QBs can go…

— Honest NFL (@TheHonestNFL) December 4, 2023

2. The Green Bay Packers’ huge victory in opposition to the Kansas City Chiefs improved their playoff probabilities considerably. Here’s how these probabilities modified for each workforce in Week 13.

Dramatic finishes in Week 13 altered the playoff panorama.

Jimmie Ward’s interception for Houston off Denver’s Russell Wilson within the remaining minute secured a victory that upped the Texans’ playoff probabilities from 50-50 to 70-30, whereas slicing the Broncos’ probabilities in half to roughly 10 p.c. That recreation produced the biggest mixed swing for a single recreation in Week 13.

Using the mannequin Austin Mock maintains for The Athletic, I’ve produced a desk exhibiting each workforce’s playoff probabilities, and how these probabilities modified in Week 13.

The Packers’ probabilities have improved from 15 p.c to 25 p.c to 53 p.c to 67 p.c throughout their three-game successful streak in opposition to the Los Angeles Chargers, Detroit Lions and Kansas City Chiefs. The Packers had been underdogs in each recreation. They may very well be favored to win over the course of their remaining schedule, which options the New York Giants, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Carolina Panthers, Minnesota Vikings and Chicago Bears.

Green Bay quarterback Jordan Love now ranks twelfth in EPA per go play. The Packers’ offense ranks tenth in EPA per play. Coach Matt LaFleur improved to 16-0 in December and could make it 20-0 if his Packers can beat the Giants, Bucs, Panthers and Vikings. It’s a brand new day in Green Bay.

3. The 2024 head coach hiring cycle is quick approaching, and with it the seek for the subsequent Kyle Shanahan or Sean McVay.

The favourite to win NFL Coach of the Year was by no means a main play caller earlier than main the Detroit Lions again from the useless into prime playoff positioning. Will Dan Campbell’s success have an effect on the 2024 hiring cycle? Will Campbell be a one-off? Are there sufficient offensive play callers to go round?

Carolina Panthers proprietor David Tepper reportedly plans to focus on an offensive-minded coach to switch the offensive-minded coach he simply fired.

Teams over the previous 5 hiring cycles have chosen 23 coaches with backgrounds on offense, 11 with backgrounds on protection and one special-teams coach (Joe Judge).

Deciding upfront you’re solely involved in candidates with a particular background reduces the chance a franchise will discover one of the best candidate. That is notable for Tepper, who has spoken incessantly about taking part in the chances.

“The very model that the owners desire is probably the hardest one to achieve success with,” an exec from a workforce with a longtime coach mentioned. “It’s hard to find the coach who can do it all well. Now, it gives you the best upside. Kyle Shanahan gives you the best upside, but it’s the hardest one to make work because it is so hard to do.”

Owners worry dropping a profitable offensive play caller to go teaching jobs elsewhere, in order that they rent offensive-minded head coaches.

But essentially the most profitable team-quarterback marriages over the previous 20 years featured coaches with backgrounds on protection and/or particular groups: Bill Belichick with Tom Brady in New England, Pete Carroll with Russell Wilson in Seattle, John Harbaugh with Joe Flacco in Baltimore, Mike Tomlin with Ben Roethlisberger in Pittsburgh.

These groups loved far larger championship success than the groups that paired offensive-minded coaches with Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees or Philip Rivers. Why? Those coaches additionally weren’t play callers. They coached the complete workforce and set the tradition.

Scoring is down. So many offenses are struggling. Top offensive assistants have already been employed away from Sean McVay’s Los Angeles Rams, Shanahan’s 49ers and Nick Sirianni’s Eagles.

The seek for the subsequent elite offensive play-calling head coach will proceed.

Detroit Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson stands out. Washington Commanders offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy ought to be within the combine. Perhaps the Cincinnati Bengals’ Brian Callahan will get an opportunity. Houston’s Bobby Slowik may draw curiosity after a robust preliminary season as a coordinator. Miami’s Frank Smith is ending his second season with the Dolphins’ Mike McDaniel.

Some of essentially the most profitable veteran defensive coordinators generate nearly no buzz.

Steve Spagnuolo has gained three Super Bowls as a defensive coordinator and has the Chiefs’ protection taking part in its finest soccer in years.

Jim Schwartz, one other former head coach with a Super Bowl pedigree as defensive coordinator, has had the Cleveland Browns’ protection within the prime 5 statistically.

The Pittsburgh Steelers’ protection below coordinator Teryl Austin not too long ago allowed not more than 20 factors in seven successive video games, the workforce’s longest streak inside a season since 2004.

Dan Quinn, Brian Flores, Raheem Morris, Ejiro Evero and Lou Anarumo are among the many defensive coordinators who may get interviews.

4. The previous month has produced the 4 least-experienced weeks of beginning quarterback play since at the very least 2000, which is fascinating as a result of …

With offensive manufacturing down over the previous couple seasons, conversations across the topic have proliferated. Former GM Bill Polian advised throughout our radio dialog Wednesday that officers are letting defensive backs play extra aggressively, affecting manufacturing. ESPN analysts have advised delayed pressures on protection are having an influence.

Multiple explanations may very well be true, however nothing impacts offense greater than quarterbacks do. With so many younger quarterbacks beginning, groups have shifted even more durable towards shotgun formations whereas simplifying their offenses. Both components have made it harder for groups to current a reputable risk within the operating recreation, and thus passing turns into tougher.

Teams that current a reputable run risk through scheme, personnel or each have remained explosive within the passing recreation. Miami, San Francisco and Houston do that nicely. They rank 1-2-3, respectively in explosive go positive aspects this season. Yes, personnel issues, however these groups are scheming explosive positive aspects partly as a result of opponents should decide to defending their run schemes.

That is my pondering, anyway.

The chart above reveals the typical years of expertise for beginning quarterbacks plummeting. It additionally reveals EPA per go play declining on the similar time. This doesn’t show causation, however this correlation appears logical.

Starting quarterbacks in Weeks 9 averaged 4.36 years of expertise, lowest in 406 regular-season weeks since 2000, per TruMedia. The 4 youngest weeks in that 24-season knowledge set fell from Week 9-12 this season. This season has produced 9 of the 35 least-experienced weeks since 2000.

5. Geno Smith’s up-and-down season because the Seahawks’ beginning quarterback has typically been confounding. A standard thread may very well be one thing.

The first e mail arrived the day after Christmas 2022. A Seahawks fan was suggesting Seattle quarterback Geno Smith performed significantly better indoors than outside, for no matter cause (having comparatively small arms was one idea).

Just a few weeks handed. The similar fan despatched a second e mail, this one that includes a line graph noting Smith’s play tailing off because the 2022 season progressed, and noting Seattle’s late-season schedule featured all outside video games.

A 3rd e mail arrived final month after Seattle’s blowout defeat at Baltimore.

“Outdoors Geno looks like the same QB from the Jets,” it learn. “But indoors he looks like the best QB in the league.”

Since that recreation, Smith regarded fairly good outside in opposition to Washington, largely good below the roof at SoFi Stadium in opposition to the Rams, very unhealthy outside in opposition to San Francisco and excellent indoors at Dallas.

Add all of it up and I’m undecided what we’ve bought, however these are splits value monitoring at the very least. Seattle finishes its season with 4 consecutive outside video games earlier than a visit to Arizona.

The indoor video games depend two at Detroit, three at Los Angeles (two in opposition to the Rams, one in opposition to the Chargers), one at New Orleans, one in opposition to Tampa Bay in Germany and one other at Dallas. Some of those defenses had been sturdy. Others weren’t. But nearly throughout the board, Smith was extremely productive.

Overall, Smith has began 33 of Pete Carroll’s 241 complete video games as Seattle’s head coach. In these 33 begins, Smith has led one of the best and fourth-best offensive EPA video games of the Carroll period: indoors at Detroit final season (48-45 victory with plus-27.6 EPA) and indoors at Dallas on Thursday evening (41-35 defeat with plus 20.9 EPA).

6. Two-minute drill: Here’s a vote for Jayden Daniels over Drake Maye because the second quarterback within the 2024 draft.

New England dropping and Arizona upsetting Pittsburgh on the street stored the Patriots in prime place to snag one of many prime two picks within the 2024 draft. Carolina sits atop the order at 1-11, with the Chicago Bears having acquired the choice in March. The Patriots (2-10) sit second, adopted by the Cardinals (3-10) and Washington (4-9).

Most NFL draft analysts in media appear to have USC’s Caleb Williams and North Carolina’s Drake Maye as the highest two quarterbacks within the 2024 class. My Football GM co-host, Randy Mueller, defined heading into Week 13 why he sees Williams first and LSU’s Jayden Daniels second. Instincts for the place are one of many key variables in Mueller’s analysis. The particulars from that dialog can be found within the audio beneath.

• Miami Dolphins receiver Tyreek Hill is on tempo for two,098 receiving yards this season after catching 5 passes for 157 yards and two touchdowns in a 45-15 victory in opposition to Washington. Hill over his previous three video games has 24 catches for 405 yards and 4 touchdowns. That roughly matches the full-season manufacturing for Odell Beckham Jr. (27-408-2).

Hill can break Calvin Johnson’s NFL single-season file (1,964) with one other 484 yards. He would want to common 96.8 yards per recreation to interrupt the file. He would want 121 yards per recreation over the subsequent 4 video games to beat Johnson’s file in the identical variety of video games obtainable to Johnson, who set the file in 2012, when groups performed 16 video games as a substitute of 17.

Hill is averaging 123.4 yards per recreation.

.@cheetah takin’ us on a experience early 🎢😂 pic.twitter.com/UlLryxhHkM

— Miami Dolphins (@MiamiDolphins) December 3, 2023

• The New England Patriots have now misplaced 10-6, 10-7 and 6-0 over the previous three weeks. Per Pro Football Reference, that is the primary time for the reason that Thirties that an NFL workforce misplaced three successive video games inside a season with out permitting greater than 10 factors in any of them. The streak has strong potential to proceed as a result of Pittsburgh is subsequent on the Patriots’ schedule.

The 1938 Chicago Cardinals misplaced 4 video games in a row with out permitting greater than 10 factors in any.

The 1937 Steelers, then led by legendary player-coach Johnny “Blood” McNally and nonetheless generally known as the Pirates, had been the final workforce to lose three in a row this fashion with out make it 4 straight the subsequent week.

McNally was way more thrilling than both the 2023 Patriots or 1937 Pirates on offense. He was identified for crawling throughout the tops of transferring trains, getting stranded on the SS Mariposa’s stern whereas doing pullups throughout a voyage to Hawaii and scaling accommodations to, amongst different issues, beat curfew and sing to ladies beneath.

As for New England, the Patriots are minus-38.2 in offensive EPA and plus-37.3 on the defensive facet throughout this slide. Special groups has been a pivotal variable. New England is minus-12.1 EPA in that element throughout its three-game skid. The Patriots have completed their previous 4 video games with adverse EPA on particular groups. That ties for the longest Patriots streak of the Bill Belichick period. …

• Mike Evans enhanced his Hall of Fame credentials by reaching 1,000 yards for the tenth consecutive season to start out his profession, 4 greater than any participant in NFL historical past (Randy Moss). The Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ receiver stands atop the yardage record amongst gamers drafted in 2014, even with Davante Adams’ presence.

• The Denver Broncos’ five-game successful streak resulted in Houston with the offense failing to transform any of its 11 probabilities on third down whereas ending with 282 yards and three turnovers. Russell Wilson’s third and remaining interception, delivered ultimately zone throughout the remaining minute, allowed Houston to emerge with a 22-17 victory. That one was not the killer. Wilson’s second interception was the one that basically harm. Denver had Jerry Jeudy open on an out-and-up, however Wilson as a substitute threw to Courtland Sutton within the publish.

“If the deep player jumps the post, you gotta go to the sideline,” a veteran coach who noticed the play mentioned. “They hit him (Sutton) on that earlier in the game for about 45 yards, and it was 100 percent the read on the interception.”

This was Sean Payton’s 270th profession recreation as a head coach and the second by which his workforce didn’t convert on third down. It occurred with New Orleans in 2021 Week 16, throughout a 20-3 loss to the Dolphins with Ian Book behind heart for the Saints. …

• While it’s honest to level out how poorly the Washington Commanders’ protection carried out in its first recreation with coach Ron Rivera taking up as coordinator, we want a couple of recreation to make an analysis. The Chicago Bears’ protection was not instantly higher when coach Matt Eberflus took over coordinating duties, however it did enhance over time.

The Buffalo Bills went into their Week 13 bye using a two-game streak with two turnovers in 26 drives below new offensive coordinator Joe Brady. That’s a giant enchancment from latest video games, however not a protracted sufficient run to make it a pattern.

The Bills responded to their turnover-ridden Week 1 defeat in opposition to the New York Jets with a three-game run that includes 14 touchdowns, six made subject targets and one turnover throughout 31 drives. Was {that a} case of then-coordinator Ken Dorsey doing an particularly good job? It may have been, however what occurs over just a few video games incessantly can replicate pure ebbs and flows inside a season.

How significantly better are the Pittsburgh Steelers after firing offensive coordinator Matt Canada? Much higher final week, not so good Sunday.

Rivera and Washington get a bye in Week 14. How the protection performs in closing video games in opposition to the Rams, Jets, 49ers and Cowboys will higher replicate upon Rivera. …

• Back to Purdy, the 49ers and these six consecutive landing drives. Per TruMedia. San Francisco joined an exalted group of workforce/quarterback mixtures to perform the feat. Also on the record: the 2019 Ravens with MVP Lamar Jackson; the 2007 and 2009 Patriots with Brady; and the 2001 Colts with Peyton Manning.

GO DEEPER

NFL Power Rankings Week 14: 49ers make an announcement, plus worst-case eventualities

(Top picture: Tim Nwachukwu / Getty Images)

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