Picking up our tour by means of the winter plans for all MLB groups, and as we speak we land within the NL Central, the place the one monster inside would possibly really be beginning to act like it.
Chicago Cubs
Owner cheapness index: Before final week it was among the many larger within the league, pleased to rake within the money from their faceless, colorless village for current Big 10 grads across the park. But after poaching Craig Counsell, possibly not?
Outlook: Blowing up the supervisor pay scale to punt the eternally wayward and misplaced David Ross right into a landfill to usher in Craig Counsell indicators . . . one thing. On the one hand, it wouldn’t make any sense to usher in the most effective managers within the recreation for such a worth and then simply hand him the expertise of an 84-win crew to show into an 87 or 88-win one, whereas wishing {that a} prospect or two would possibly add only a contact extra. On the opposite hand, it will make full Ricketts-Cubs sense.
It makes much more sense when the division has come again to, and even sank beneath, the Cubs already. The Brewers simply misplaced their supervisor, have certainly one of their prime starters out for the yr and the opposite seemingly traded earlier than the season. The Reds and Pirates are unlikely to enhance their younger cores with the signings they want. The Cardinals . . . no matter. The Cubs can simply simply tinker, if that, from right here and be Central favorites in 2024.
Should they’ve extra ambition, there are apparent holes. First and third base, DH and a beginning pitcher or two. A bullpen arm or two wouldn’t harm both. They will declare that Christopher Morel will fill a kind of lineup gaps, however their GM already appears to be ringing the dinner bell for different groups to make him a part of a commerce package deal. Morel might need the most important boom-or-bust bat anyplace and the specter of being a bust much more would possibly make him greatest used as a commerce chip. There additionally isn’t a place open for the Cubs the place Morel wouldn’t be higher off having a glove on his head as a substitute of his left hand.
The Cubs may use any of the large names. Shohei Ohtani solves two of their issues, although not till 2025 for each. Bringing again Cody Bellinger solves first base and is insurance coverage in case scorching younger factor Pete Crow-Armstrong can’t hit a fastball above his waist in middle. Matt Chapman would give them the very best defensive infield within the league whereas additionally hitting the ball out of the infield often, which Nick Madrigal can’t.
They don’t essentially want Blake Snell or Aaron Nola, however Sonny Gray or Eduardo Rodriguez would match very snugly behind Justin Steele. The Cubs even have a extremely regarded system that ought to make them a participant in any of the rumored huge trades on provide, be it Juan Soto, Pete Alonso, Tyler Glasnow or whoever else. They’re rumored to be the chief within the clubhouse to supply Rhys Hoskins a pillow contract to show he’s again to regular after his ACL went poof, which ought to save them cash to go after one thing else.
It feels like the Cubs are on the point of lord over the NL Central once more, given their assets benefit, in a manner they need to have by no means actually stopped doing. But there’s additionally a heavy don’t-believe-it-until-you-see-it ingredient, as a result of it’s nonetheless the Ricketts household at work right here.
Ohtani Meter: 7. The Cubs will most likely make extra noise about chasing Ohtani than they do really chasing him, however it makes all of the sense on the earth. He fills a necessity, he makes them an NL contender with simply his bat, given the state of the division the Cubs present him with video games that matter from Year One on. And in addition they have their very own community which everyone hates to promote.
Cincinnati Reds
Owner cheapness index: Galactic and assholic
Outlook: For as a lot pleasure because the Reds generated there for a minute or two with the wealth of youngsters who got here by means of and a minimum of flashed, they’re hardly a positive factor in 2024. Elly De La Cruz struck out on a regular basis and changed into one thing of a sucking sound on the plate. He received’t keep that manner, however when he turns into Alex Rodriguez 2.0 isn’t precisely recognized or automated both. Christian Encarnacion-Strand’s Ok/BB charge is nonetheless itchy. Jonathan India really has middling defensive or offensive worth anymore, which is why the Reds aren’t precisely couth about how a lot they’d like to commerce him. An improve at DH wouldn’t be remiss.
That doesn’t imply they received’t be value watching, and it’s hardly farfetched that each participant beneath 25 right here turns into good and the Great American Ballpark appears like a pinball machine once more. So it will be heartening to see Bob Castellini and his dickhead son really get their thumbs out of their ass and increase that lineup with one thing greater than a rotation that also hinges on the well being of Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo, the very definition of a fortress within the sand. If they did keep wholesome, together with Andrew Abbot, this is able to be a scary rotation for some time. But in case your aunt had balls and such.
The Reds ought to completely be scorching on Gray or Rodriguez or Nola or buying and selling for Glasnow (his well being issues would match proper in). The free-agent pitchers above a minimum of would take the ball often and having a couple of starter that would a minimum of get 5 innings with out inflicting a Three Mile island redux would have seen the Reds grasp within the playoff chase lots longer final yr. The Central and National League as an entire is hardly a gauntlet, and it wouldn’t take a lot for the Reds to place themselves on the enterprise finish of it. But they received’t.
Ohtani Meter: 1. It’s not arduous to see the place Ohtani would get the aggressive crew he desires for years out of the Reds, they usually definitely have greater than sufficient cash, with some $150 million projected obtainable beneath the tax threshold. But a $50 million (a minimum of) yearly paycheck would trigger the Castellinis to have 5 simultaneous mind bubbles.
Milwaukee Brewers
Owner Cheapness index: Cheapness index is sort of excessive, although weighted for the market, however his total Tool Index is very excessive as he simply whined and pouted the state and metropolis giving him tons of of thousands and thousands for enhancements to a ballpark over no matter precise issues Wisconsin and Milwaukee would possibly really want.
Outlook: Hard to parse, as we’ll have to attend for them to cease whinging about shedding Counsell to “that team 80 miles south.” That may not come till June, when the Cubs have sufficiently dunked on no matter’s left right here.
Because the Brewers are just about already screwed. Brandon Woodruff is going to overlook the season with shoulder surgical procedure. Corbin Burnes is nearly sure to be traded a yr out from free company. That’s their two greatest starters gone, leaving Freddy Peralta, Adrien Houser and three guys kidnapped from the Mars Cheese Castle.
And the offense isn’t coming to assist them. Christian Yelich was capable of find the ball once more (or have the pitch sign from middle discipline lively once more) and produced a stage beneath his MVP-form from a pair years in the past. Which was higher than the six ranges beneath it that he had been taking part in at. William Contreras was additionally a plus-hitter, however that’s it. Sal Frelick got here up and walked lots however no extra. The Crew can have lots driving on Frelick and different youngsters like Garrett Mitchell and Brice Turang, however none of them are positive issues. Jackson Chuorio and Seth Rollins Tyler Black might be part of in the course of the season. But any crew counting on all that . . . is the 2023 Reds.
But now that Mark Attanasio has gotten his ballpark deal, and now that Burnes and Woodruff have set this crew out from a path it is going to be arduous to deviate from, one doesn’t have to squint to see the membership taking all of that as an excuse to reset and intention for the seasons past 2025. Maybe they search for an improve at first, get into the Hoskins rehab derby and signal a pitcher or two that they assume will stay standing for many of the yr whereas ducking the paychecks the highest of the market would require.
They’ll be rooting arduous for Giannis and Dame Time to maintain eyes targeted elsewhere so long as attainable in Cream City.
Ohtani Meter: -2
Pittsburgh Pirates
Owner Cheapness index: The worst there is.
Outlook: The Bucs appears like they’re a half or full step behind the Reds in the place they’re, as there’s much less certainty about what their prospects who cracked the lineup are. Oneill Cruz would possibly have the ability to throw a baseball by means of three reside cows lengthwise, however he nonetheless barely has a half season of MLB expertise due to turning his ankle into putty at first of final yr. His offensive numbers in these 90+ video games are simply barely common. Jared Triolo isn’t going to hold a .440 BABIP by means of his profession. Endy Rodriguez didn’t hit a lick. Neither did Henry Davis. Time is on all their sides right here, however taking the time to determine what they’ve simply would possibly preclude them from taking the splash the Reds ought to within the offseason.
The rotation isn’t a lot completely different. Mitch Keller is most likely a very good No. 2 however is the ace right here. Johan Oviedo or Luis Ortiz didn’t actually present the management to get across the strikeouts they don’t get, a minimum of not but. Roansy Contreras flashed strikeout stuff within the minors, however didn’t in his cameo within the Bigs, however did flash a penchant for offering followers with a house run ball of their beer.
In an ideal world, the Pirates may use a fixture within the outfield and within the rotation behind or in entrance of Keller. In Bob Nutting’s world, they’ll let the children fend for themselves for a minimum of one other season.
Ohtani Meter: -1,000
St. Louis Cardinals
Owner cheapness index: Extremely excessive for a crew and fanbase that considers itself the middle of the baseball world.
Outlook: Man is this a multitude. The Cardinals season began with them huffing the paint of Jordan Walker’s irrelevant spring coaching numbers, jamming him into an overcrowded outfield and then it solely received worse. They had one good starter, whom they needed to flog to the World Series champs (Jordan Montgomery). Paul Goldschmidt began his decline at 36. Nolan Arenado traded in fly balls for grounders and he’ll be 33 subsequent yr. Willson Contreras really hit for them, however all the place hated his guts the minute he walked within the clubhouse as a result of he wasn’t Yadier Molina.
There’s most likely nonetheless offense to be excavated from this steaming husk, as even when they’re outdated, Goldschmidt and Arenado are nonetheless helpful, and Contreras, Nootbar, Gorman and Donovan have been all plus-hitters final yr, even when they completed nineteenth in runs. But the Cards wouldn’t be misplaced in bringing in three starters, as a result of in any other case they’re going to lose lots of 8-7 video games. The rotation is spearheaded by Miles Mikolas and Steven Matz, and after that it’s the Matthew Liberatore Experience once more, solely this time with like three guys (Liberatore is baseball Oliver Wahlstrom).
The Cards may go nuts and signal two of the highest starters round, say Nola plus Rodriguez or one thing, hope the lineup does higher than the .247 they managed final yr with runners in scoring place, and goof 85 wins. But when have they ever completed that? They shouldn’t have misplaced 91 video games final yr, however that doesn’t imply they need to win 91 in 2024. The Cubs may simply make the buy-in to win the division at 92 or 93 wins, and the bar to get into the wild-card spots might by no means be decrease than it was final season. Cardinals followers might spend one other summer time sweating whereas they eat for nothing.
Follow Sam on Twitter @Felsgate and on Bluesky @felsgate.bsky.social
Discussion about this post