They entered the NFL with nice fanfare and lofty expectations of sooner or later rating amongst the finest collections of expertise the NFL had seen at their place. But simply three years later, the 2021 quarterback draft class as a substitute largely appears like one nice huge bust.
While NFL teams proceed their assessments of one other extremely touted group of quarterbacks main up to April’s draft, two of the 5 QBs drafted in the 2021 first spherical (Justin Fields and Mac Jones) had been simply traded for meager compensation. A 3rd (Trey Lance) prepares to enter Year 2 as a backup for his second staff. And a fourth (Zach Wilson) is going through an unsure future in the NFL.
Trevor Lawrence — the No. 1 choose — is the solely 2021 first-round quarterback nonetheless seen as the reply for his drafting staff, the Jacksonville Jaguars. But even Lawrence has but to blossom right into a transformative star. Meanwhile, Wilson clearly is in his final days with the New York Jets, who will commerce or lower him. Lance is a backup for the Cowboys, traded to Dallas after Brock Purdy took over as the chief of San Francisco’s offense. Fields simply received shipped from Chicago to Pittsburgh. And the Patriots primarily gave Jones to the Jaguars, who will use him as Lawrence’s backup.
Instead of rivaling the 1983 draft class of Hall of Famers John Elway, Jim Kelly and Dan Marino, the 2021 QB class will as a substitute function a cautionary instance about how generally teams miss when it comes to expertise evaluations, projections and developmental plans.
But what went improper? Why are these once-heralded quarterbacks nonetheless caught in developmental levels and/or bordering on bust territory?
An examination of every state of affairs reveals some frequent themes and solutions.
Trevor Lawrence continues to be with the Jaguars however has had an up-and-down three seasons. (Steve Roberts / USA Today)
Lawrence and the Jaguars
Lawrence has not but approached elite standing, however he’s the closest factor to a franchise quarterback this bunch has yielded. He is 20-30 as a starter with 58 landing passes, 39 interceptions and a completion proportion of 63.8. His lone profitable season (9-8 in 2022) yielded a playoff look (Jacksonville went 1-1 in the postseason) and a Pro Bowl choice after he handed for 4,113 yards, 25 touchdowns and simply eight interceptions. Lawrence and the Jaguars took a slight step backward in 2023, nevertheless, and missed the playoffs after an up-and-down 12 months that concluded with a 1-5 skid.
Although Lawrence has struggled with consistency, most NFL expertise evaluators nonetheless suppose he has promise. They imagine his growth was handicapped by a rookie season marked by dysfunction and toxicity beneath Urban Meyer, who was fired after a 2-11 begin. The Jaguars changed him with Doug Pederson, who has been good for Lawrence, although a few of the accuracy points the QB exhibited in faculty in opposition to top-level DBs (see the LSU and Alabama matchups specifically) have adopted him to the NFL. Lawrence additionally performed via some accidents in 2023. Health and one other season in Pederson’s system ought to assist advance his growth, however the Jaguars additionally should discover a high quality No. 1 receiver to exchange Calvin Ridley to additional assist the 24-year-old Lawrence.
Zach Wilson is probably going to be lower if the Jets can’t work out a commerce for him. (Jasen Vinlove / USA Today)
Wilson and the Jets
Wilson pre-draft exercises and faculty sport movie showcased his escapability and an improvisational wizardry that reminded expertise evaluators of Aaron Rodgers. But BYU didn’t face elite expertise in 2020, competing in opposition to faculties from Conference USA, American Athletic, Sun Belt and Mountain West conferences, and the bounce to the NFL proved far steeper for the No. 2 choose than the Jets ever imagined.
Wilson’s three Jets seasons have been a catastrophe. He’s 12-21 as a starter with 23 landing passes, 25 interceptions and a completion proportion of 57.0, plus a number of benchings. In retrospect, Wilson by no means ought to have gone as early in the draft as he did, and additionally wanted to sit behind a veteran starter to study and develop step by step each mentally and bodily.
Wilson now faces an unsure future. The Jets are attempting to commerce him after he struggled once more as a starter following Rodgers’ season-ending Achilles harm in Week 1. And whereas the first week of free company featured a good quantity of quarterback motion, Wilson’s title hasn’t even been linked to teams in rumors of potential offers. If Wilson is lower, some rival expertise evaluators imagine somebody will take a flier on him as a backup/reclamation venture.
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Lance and the 49ers
San Francisco knew Lance could be a venture: The quarterback got here out of North Dakota State with just one full season of expertise (2019) after COVID-19 robbed him of a full junior marketing campaign. Yet the 49ers deemed Lance worthy of buying and selling up from No. 12 to take him third general.
After a season behind Jimmy Garoppolo, Lance entered 2022 as San Francisco’s starter, thanks largely to the truth Garoppolo was nonetheless recovering from offseason shoulder surgical procedure. But in two video games, Lance accomplished simply 15 of 31 passes (48.4 p.c) for 194 yards, no touchdowns and an interception earlier than struggling a fractured ankle and lacking the remainder of the season. The emergence of Purdy later that very same season, coupled with Lance’s continued developmental struggles in the 2023 offseason and coaching camp, induced the 49ers to lose endurance. They traded Lance to Dallas for a fourth-round choose, and Lance spent the whole season as the Cowboys’ third quarterback, by no means taking a snap.
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The 49ers grossly erred of their evaluation of Lance, who ultimately proved to be way more uncooked, much less dynamic as an athlete and not practically as pure a thrower as they believed. That’s not to say that Lance can’t sometime turn into a high quality NFL quarterback. But the 49ers discovered themselves in a spot of urgency as they struggle to capitalize on the window of alternative they’ve with a championship-ready roster. Team officers in the end determined they didn’t have time to look forward to Lance to develop, and selected Sam Darnold as their No. 2 quarterback, deeming Lance expendable.
Purdy (the final choose of the 2022 draft) wound up so dramatically exceeding expectations, he offset the probably crippling Lance miscalculations by San Francisco GM John Lynch and coach Kyle Shanahan. Meanwhile, the means to study from Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott with out the weight of expectations and a ticking clock may very well be the neatest thing for Lance’s growth in the future.
Fields and the Bears
Fields spent one season beneath Matt Nagy, who was fired after that 6-11 marketing campaign, then had to begin over once more beneath Matt Eberflus and offensive coordinator Luke Getsy. Eberflus and Getsy turned Fields (the No. 11 choose) into far more of a working quarterback than he ever was at Ohio State, and Fields did show dynamic as a rusher. He concluded the 2022 marketing campaign with 1,143 speeding yards, becoming a member of Michael Vick and Lamar Jackson as the solely quarterbacks to rush for 1,000 yards in a season. However, Fields was far much less dynamic as a passer, throwing for simply 2,242 yards, 17 touchdowns and 11 interceptions whereas main the NFL in sacks (55) and fumbles (16). The perpetually poor state of Chicago’s offensive line additionally factored into Fields’ struggles.
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Fields made average enhancements in Year 3, however nonetheless lacked consistency as a passer. Fields seemingly struggles to see the subject properly, and rival scouts and coaches query whether or not he ever actually was comfy in Chicago’s system. Ultimately, Fields was the product of a poor developmental plan and by no means had the good thing about taking part in for coaches who actually believed in him or had an excellent understanding of how to tailor an offense to his strengths. Eberflus did fireplace Getsy following the 2023 season, however the transfer got here too late for Fields, whom the Bears traded to the Steelers on Saturday. Chicago is predicted to draft USC quarterback Caleb Williams with the No. 1 choose.
A reset might be the neatest thing for Fields. He’ll start his Steelers chapter as backup to Russell Wilson, a former Super Bowl champion who may also help Fields additional perceive NFL defensive ideas and how to use his mobility as a software to lengthen performs whereas he works to additional refine his passing expertise.
Jones helped Alabama win a nationwide championship however was by no means seen as a dynamic NFL prospect. Playing for Nick Saban maybe higher ready him for the professional sport, however Jones was regarded by many expertise evaluators as having the lowest ceiling of his fellow first-round quarterbacks due to common bodily items.
Jones, taken fifteenth by New England, had a strong rookie season. He beat out Cam Newton for the beginning job and handed for 3,801 yards, 22 touchdowns and 13 interceptions, serving to the Patriots go 10-7 and attain the playoffs. But he regressed in Year 2 after Josh McDaniels left his job as New England’s offensive coordinator to coach the Raiders. Bill Belichick then tabbed former defensive coordinator Matt Patricia and former particular teams coordinator Joe Judge to direct the offense reasonably than giving Jones a real offensive coordinator. The legendary head coach/roster architect additionally failed to sufficiently bolster the Patriots’ ability positions. Despite the hiring of Bill O’Brien as offensive coordinator coming into Jones’ third season, the quarterback by no means managed to regain his effectiveness and was benched off and on whereas going 2-9 as starter.
Jones’ state of affairs is an ideal instance of staff mismanagement. Despite his limitations (common arm energy and athleticism), he excelled in faculty whereas surrounded by superior expertise that helped ease stress on him. He succeeded as an NFL rookie as a result of the extremely inventive McDaniels understood how to finest masks his deficiencies and place him for achievement. Belichick foolishly thought Patricia and Judge might do the identical. Without McDaniels’ offensive wizardry and missing a proficient supporting solid, Jones got here crashing down to earth. Now, he’s in Jacksonville as Lawrence’s backup — a job that most closely fits his ability set.
In 5 weeks, the subsequent crop of star faculty quarterbacks will enter the NFL with nice fanfare and expectations they are going to change the fortunes of the teams that may make investments good-looking draft picks to purchase them. The Bears and Patriots — homeowners of the first and third picks of the draft, respectively — are anticipated to as soon as once more take swings at discovering a franchise quarterback. The Commanders, Vikings, Raiders and Broncos additionally might draft quarterbacks.
Their success will hinge largely on a capability to keep away from the errors made by the Jets, 49ers, Bears, Patriots and so many different teams earlier than them: Poor expertise projection, overvalued prospects and a failure to present the quarterbacks with satisfactory teaching or roster help.
(Top photographs of Trey Lance, Justin Fields and Mac Jones: Christian Petersen, Michael Reaves and Chris Unger / Getty Images)
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