With lower than two months remaining till the NHL’s March 3 trade deadline, let’s deal with a potential trade for San Jose Sharks defenseman Erik Karlsson.
Archetype and Ideal Role
Puck Mover, Top Pair
Karlsson was the No. 16 ranked Puck-Moving Defenseman in Daily Faceoff’s Archetype Ranking sequence earlier than the season. Ideally, Karlsson performs in a featured offensive position at each even-strength and on the energy play, and he is partnered with a dependable, stay-at-home defenseman who is an above-average defender.
Scouting Report
After two Norris Trophies and 14 seasons, there aren’t any secrets and techniques about Karlsson and his sport. Karlsson is certainly one of the NHL’s elite offensive defensemen of all time. Since becoming a member of the Sharks in 2018, he ranks thirteenth amongst defensemen in whole factors (198) and tenth in factors per 60 minutes (1.93). Perhaps most impressively, solely 66 of Karlsson’s 198 factors in that span got here on the energy play, that means the majority of his injury was finished at even energy.
There are many explanation why Karlsson is elite. His offensive hockey sense is off the charts. He not solely can acknowledge harmful house shifting into the zone, however he can get there to be a legit possibility with out the puck. With the puck, he can create house as a result of he is so elusive. His lateral mobility baits defenders into poor positions, the place he can slip by and provides himself and his teammates higher appears.
His fingers, coupled along with his sense and timing, permit him to shortly change route with the puck. They additionally contribute to his fast, arduous, and correct shot – which makes him a risk from distance. He is additionally misleading, utilizing his shot as a risk to open lanes to then distribute.
Even although he’s suffered important Achilles and ankle accidents, he is nonetheless an elite skater who can transport the puck with ease. According to Stathletes, Karlsson was the No. 1 participant final season in profitable zone exits by carry final season.
The query groups need to be answered: What’s behind Karlsson’s spectacular resurgence this season?
With 56 factors in the first half of this season, Karlsson has already crushed his single-best level whole in a Sharks uniform by a huge margin. The simplest reply is no extra Brent Burns. Karlsson has oxygen to breathe. When Burns was in San Jose, he’d play the lion’s share of his 5-on-5 and energy play minutes with San Jose’s greatest gamers together with Tomas Hertl, Timo Meier, and Logan Couture.
This season, with Burns in Carolina, Karlsson is getting extra alternatives with the Sharks’ high gamers and on the first unit of the energy play, therefore the increase in manufacturing. His whole ice time is up almost two minutes per sport, again to the 25-minute-plus stage he was accustomed to in Ottawa. Secondly, well being has been a large issue. Before this yr, Karlsson had missed 79 video games over 4 seasons on account of damage. He hasn’t missed one sport this season.
Buyer Beware
After two Norris Trophies and 14 seasons, there aren’t any secrets and techniques about the deficiencies in Karlsson’s sport, both. He is a typically poor defender, largely as a result of he is so closely concerned in the offense. He takes a high-risk method on the again finish. He is a traditional “rover,” virtually a fourth ahead on the ice. When defending the rush, Karlsson has sturdy hand-eye coordination and routinely picks pucks and passes out of the air. The bother is, he isn’t at all times defending the rush – however skating to get again.
In the defensive zone, his play can greatest be described as “permissive.” He is passive in his willingness to assault and lower off offense, and he doesn’t eagerly block photographs, which suggests the opposition can generate harmful appears round him. That mentioned, his precise on-ice outcomes equate to a “defense by offense” as a result of he has the puck a lot. He manages to tilt the play in the proper route. With Karlsson on the ice at 5-on-5 this season, the Sharks maintain a 529-418 edge in scoring possibilities, based on Natural Stat Trick.
With his elite offensive expertise, groups are simply capable of overlook the dangerous for the good. But extra regarding than his protection is his contract. Karlsson’s deal doesn’t expire till 2027, simply after his thirty seventh birthday.
Given the restrictive and unforgiving nature of the wage cap, $11.5 million is an huge wage cap hit for an elite defenseman in his prime, not to mention a 32-year-old having fun with a renaissance season with a important damage historical past. Karlsson additionally holds all the playing cards with a full ‘no-trade’ veto however as not too long ago as this week has expressed his need to win – and on condition that the Sharks are in the midst of a full-scale rebuild, he is aware of that received’t be in San Jose.
It’s vital to remember that with $11 million on account of Karlsson in signing bonus over the final two seasons of his contract, it is basically “buyout proof.” That signing bonus cash makes for a balloon wage cap hit that might be tough for any staff to swallow ought to the want come up. This implies that not provided that Karlsson is acquired will he retain management over his future vacation spot, but additionally that if he underperforms, will probably be more and more tough the sever ties with him.
Potential Fits
This week, the San Jose Sharks reportedly requested for three first-round picks in trade for Karlsson, with the Sharks keen to retain 18 p.c of his contract. That would knock Karlsson all the way down to a roughly $9.4 million wage cap hit.
- Ottawa Senators: Welcome dwelling, Karl. Karlsson nonetheless spends a few of his summers in Ottawa and he might return on the different facet of a rebuild to an rising Senators staff and type a formidable high 4 with Thomas Chabot, Jake Sanderson, and Artem Zub. The Sens’ fanbase would explode with pleasure. One roadblock is the acquisition value: it doesn’t look like the Sens can be keen to trade that kind of draft capital. Another want is that Karlsson could also be a little bit redundant, even when he is higher than Chabot. Then there is the potential wage cap problem. How many $8 million-plus gamers can the Sens afford? Chabot, Brady Tkachuk, Josh Norris, and Tim Stutzle are already there. What occurs to Alex DeBrincat and his subsequent deal? The accounting turns into tough.
- There are potential roadblocks in nearly each different market you might hypothesize. Would the Seattle Kraken be that aggressive? How about the Columbus Blue Jackets after their costly summer season? Do the Winnipeg Jets want Karlsson with Josh Morrissey’s manufacturing? Could the Toronto Maple Leafs match him in not simply this season however past as their costly ahead contracts want renewals? What about the Washington Capitals, the place John Carlson already runs their energy play? None of them are actually good suits, and after connecting all of these dots, the subsequent query is: Would Karlsson need to go to any of these locations?
Sizing up the Market
Other Defensemen Available: LD Jakob Chychrun (Arizona), RD John Klingberg (Anaheim), LD Shayne Gostisbehere (Arizona).
Potentially accessible defensemen: LD Cam Fowler (Anaheim), RD Matt Dumba (Minnesota).
Pending free brokers this summer season: RD Damon Severson (New Jersey), Klingberg, Gostisbehere.
Comparable Trade Returns
Unprecedented. There aren’t any comparable trade returns as a result of a trade like this has by no means occurred in NHL historical past. None of the 14 gamers in the wage period with an eight-figure cap hit has ever been traded, not to mention one with four-plus years remaining on his deal.
Summary
With Karlsson having the renaissance yr few might have predicted, it’s straightforward to see why San Jose would need to be aggressive in attempting to interrupt free from the shackles of his $92 million contract. There is little doubt that Karlsson the participant will help a staff. But as the highest-paid defenseman in the NHL, his contract calls for him to be the greatest all-around blueliner – but he is not that, and at age 32, Father Time is undefeated and it’s honest to imagine a decline is in order. If Karlsson is to maneuver in any respect, it’ll rely on a combination of San Jose’s eagerness to bend, a staff’s want for a game-breaking level producer, and Karlsson’s willingness to go there. His trade market is extremely tough to gauge, making it extra unlikely than seemingly that he is traded earlier than the deadline.
Discussion about this post