Patrick Mahomes. Joe Burrow. Jalen Hurts. Josh Allen. One of those 4 quarterbacks has an opportunity to do one thing that hasn’t been executed in 23 years — win the MVP and the Super Bowl in the identical yr.
Lots of people within the sports activities world nonetheless consider the MVP ought to go to one of the best participant on one of the best group. How the award gathered such a distinction, I don’t know, however for some cause, many followers nonetheless maintain onto it as if it isn’t the dumbest saying in all of sports activities. That is likely to be the excellence for particular person soccer video games, and that’s why now we have the Super Bowl MVP Award. However, that’s not the case for a season-long MVP title.
Not since Kurt Warner
History backs up my argument as effectively. As I’ve identified earlier than, NFL award winners have a really tough time within the Super Bowl, particularly MVP winners. Ever since Kurt Warner gained the Super Bowl in addition to the MVP Award in 1999/2000, zero gamers have achieved that feat. None! Many have tried, and even come very shut. MVPs have reached the Super Bowl 9 occasions since Warner achieved the feat. They’re an abysmal 0-9 although. Funny sufficient, just a few of those MVPs did win the Super Bowl the next season. Mahomes gained the award in 2018 and gained the Super Bowl in 2019. Tom Brady gained MVP in 2017, misplaced to Nick Foles within the Super Bowl, after which gained the massive recreation the next yr towards Jared Goff and the Los Angeles Rams. The closest any particular person has ever gotten to breaking the streak was Matt Ryan, the 2016 NFL MVP, who went up 28-3 within the Super Bowl, however blew the lead and misplaced in time beyond regulation to Brady’s Patriots.
Who’s subsequent?
So, may the streak be damaged in 2023? There’s a reasonably good probability. The MVP frontrunner is none aside from Patrick Mahomes. He’s the highest seed within the AFC and, though he isn’t assured home-field benefit by means of the playoffs, has confirmed able to main his group to a Super Bowl victory earlier than. Even with out Tyreek Hill, the Chiefs’ offense is diabolical, and is ready to sustain with some other group within the league, even when the opposing protection is likely one of the finest within the NFL as effectively. That mentioned, there’s nonetheless an opportunity that Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow, Buffalo’s Josh Allen, or Philadelphia’s Jalen Hurts may come away with the award. They do have the second, third, and fourth-best odds respectively.
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There can solely be one, in fact
That’s half of each group remaining with an opportunity to win all of it and have their quarterback win the Super Bowl. That looks like fairly good odds, don’t you assume? In actuality, although, the percentages aren’t as nice as you may assume. Since solely a type of names is a quarterback within the NFC (and he has the worst MVP odds of the bunch), there’s solely a 25 % probability that we see an MVP candidate come out of the NFC. While the AFC is loaded with these MVP-caliber quarterbacks, just one can emerge to characterize their convention. The best-case situation for breaking this curse can be if Mahomes and the Chiefs went up towards Hurts and the Eagles. However, that’s beneath the belief that neither Allen nor Burrow takes dwelling the {hardware}. Even nonetheless, the precise quarterback would have to win.
It would take a miracle for the whole lot to line up so completely this yr, however this is likely to be our greatest probability to see the streak damaged. I can’t keep in mind the final time we had each reliable MVP candidate attain the Divisional Round. That, in and of itself, needs to be celebrated. Seeing the MVP win the Super Bowl although, even now, looks like an astronomically inconceivable incidence.
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